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Old 10-13-2015, 12:21 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 6 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 5-8-1. Season totals: 33-43-1, Pct. .435. Best Bets: 8-7, Pct. .533.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

Atlanta
31, NEW ORLEANS 21 (+3) - The Saints must be pretty rotten, especially on defense, if the Eagles beat them like that, while the Falcons are exceeding even my pre-season expectations, which just about everyone scoffed at. Their ridiculously easy schedule puts them on cruise control from here until the playoffs, in which they will surely be partaking.


SUNDAY

N.Y. JETS 17, Washington 14 (+5 1/2) - After nearly beating Matt Ryan on the road, why can't Kirk Cousins at least keep it close against Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road? And Washington has yet to lose to the Jets on the road - 4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread - and is 8-2 straight up and 5-3-2 versus the points against them regardless of where the games were played. The Jets have also dropped their last three coming off a bye, both ways. So take the points - at least.

Cincinnati 24 (+1), BUFFALO 17 - Since it isn't January or even December, Andy Dalton rates a huge edge over Tyrod Taylor. And it will be a long time before the Bengals get tired of beating the Bills after having lost to them ten times in a row from 1989 through 2010, Cincy having won the last two, in 2011 and 2013.

PITTSBURGH 17 (+3), Arizona 13 - Perhaps the Steeler fans should leave their Terrible Towels at home and show up to this game wearing peace signs and tie-dyed jeans - to taunt the Cardinals about how they haven't won in Pittsburgh since 1969! Upset special.

Houston 13, JACKSONVILLE 10 (+1 1/2) - There is really nothing better to do here than to side with the Texans because they played a Thursday night game last week.

Denver 30, CLEVELAND 13 (+4 1/2) - For the second week in a row the Broncos shape up as a "best bet with benefits" - a best bet because they're on the road on natural grass again (they have now won 17 consecutive such games, with a 16-1 spread record), the benefits coming in the form of Denver being 6-0 lifetime against Cleveland 2.0 (5-1 against the spread) by a combined 179-85. And if there was a letdown alert system like there used to be a terror alert system, the Browns would be on double secret red alert after not only breaking their exceptional drought in Baltimore last week, but the way they did it.

Chicago 20 (+3), DETROIT 7 - Remember what happened to Matt Schaub after the Texans benched him? Well the same thing is going to happen to Matthew Stafford. Not even the home team's 7-1 spread record in this division rivalry since 2011 and Chicago being 1-4 both ways inside NFL domes and 2-7 straight up and 3-6 against the line since 2013 as a visitor on the carpet can save the Lions.

Miami 27 (+3), TENNESSEE 20 - Yes, the Dolphins are underachieving yet again, already having cost Joe Philbin his job. But should they be underdogs in this spot? Not a chance.

MINNESOTA 31, Kansas City 14 (+3 1/2) - The MRI on Jamaal Charles' knee was positive (it showed a torn ACL) - and that's a huge negative for the Chiefs going forward. We saw the home team come through with a win and cover when the Vikings were in the exact same situation three weeks ago - in a renewal of an inter-conference series in which the home team had won and covered four straight - and in this case there is the added factor of KC's long-term poor form on artificial turf: 6-21 outright and 12-15 pointwise in the last 27. In fact, let's go with the exact same score as the final in the previous game.

GREEN BAY 35, San Diego 17 (+9 1/2) - With Detroit in full dumpster-fire mode, the Packers have clear sailing in the NFC North, and have sailed to six consecutive wins and covers over the Chargers, against whom they are also 9-1 straight up and 8-2 versus the points all told. No reason to doubt.

Baltimore 20, SAN FRANCISCO 6 (+3) - Throw out Sunday night's near-upset by the 49ers of the NFC East-leading Giants, who were clearly looking ahead to back-to-back division games, and The Modell Franchise is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in the last six vs. San Francisco, Santa Clara, whatever. John Harbaugh goes from beating his brother in the Super Bowl to avenging his brother's firing.

SEATTLE 30, Carolina 14 (+6 1/2) - The Seahawks are a completely different team at home, while the Panthers are a completely different team on artificial turf: 8-22-1 straight up and 9-22 against the spread on it since 2008. Furthermore, Carolina has lost and non-covered four in a row off the bye, and have the same streak - both ways - vs. Seattle in the series. And to top it all off, the Seahawks finally get the Panthers in their building after the last three meetings have all been at Carolina.

New England 55, INDIANAPOLIS 28 (+7) - A lot of people don't like the Patriots - but nobody likes a rat, and that's exactly what the Colts did regarding Deflategate. And they're a rat that has been exterminated six straight times by New England, getting out-cheesed 189-73 in the last four - and where the Broncos are the bee's knees on the road so long as the game is on natural grass, the Patriots are the same on the road so long as the game is on artificial turf, as in 9-2 straight up on road rugs since 2013, including seven consecutive wins with six covers therein, compared with 3-6 straight up and 2-7 against the line on grass over the same period. Don't be surprised if Bill Belichick calls deep pass plays late in the game, when he might even try an onside kick.


MONDAY

PHILADELPHIA
30, N.Y. Giants 23 (+4) - The Eagles have somehow managed to come up with big plays in the passing game the last two weeks, while the Giants are severely banged up at wide receiver and may be without all three of the top names on their depth chart at that position. And Philly's recent domination of the series - 11-3 both ways in the last 14 - is pretty hard to ignore.


BEST BETS: DENVER, SEATTLE, NEW ENGLAND

Last edited by Anthony; 10-15-2015 at 12:54 PM.
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