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Old 09-24-2019, 06:26 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 4 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 5-10-1. Season totals: 18-27-3, Pct. .406. Best Bets: 3-5-1, Pct. .389.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold
.


THURSDAY NIGHT

GREEN BAY
51, Philadelphia 17 (+3) - A-Rod's lifetime passer rating against the Eagles is all the way off the FM dial at 109.1, earned by going 91 out of 135 for 1,048 yards, 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions in four games, all of which the Packers won and covered, outscoring Philadelphia 128-69. And Carson Wentz is like a cheap speed horse in a race: If he gets an easy lead, he can generally go gate to wire; but if another horse runs with him, he will fall apart like a $20 suit in a driving rainstorm. Here's a chance to start the week with an old-fashioned blowout - and a best bet.


SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS
27, Washington 13 (+3) - In his first NFL start last week, Daniel Jones went 23 out of 36 for 336 yards and two touchdowns, suggesting that the Giants won't even need Saquon Barkley (the dreaded high ankle sprain, out up to two months) to win this - especially on the carpet, upon which Elizabeth Warren's Team is 6-18 straight up since 2013.

New England 28, BUFFALO 10 (+7 1/2) - In 14 career starts, Josh Allen has four fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives; in 43 career starts, Carson Wentz has four fourth-quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives. But the Bills haven't faced anywhere near this kind yet this year, and for quite some time, Buffalo has been New England's friendly home away from home, as in 14-1 straight up and 12-2-1 against the spread dating back to 2004.

ATLANTA 31, Tennessee 21 (+5) - The Titans defense must be pretty rotten if Gardner Minshew, one of several quarterbacks starting at the moment who couldn't wear Colin Kaepernick's jockstrap, gashed it for a 108.2 passer rating last Thursday night. Tennessee also hardly excels on rugs - 6-15 both ways since 2013.

MIAMI 17 (+16 1/2), L.A. Chargers 16 - The Chargers are paying a heavy price for being cheap and not paying Melvin Gordon what he's worth - and they haven't beaten the Chargers on the road (Los Angeles or San Diego) since 1981, losing eight in a row there and getting outscored 212-79 - and all three Florida teams have always been dangerous at home in early-time-slot-games in September. So make this the week's - and maybe even the entire season's - Super Upset Special. And it's big balloons!

Kansas City 34, DETROIT 30 (+7) - For anyone who bet on the Chiefs last week, the second half must have felt like it lasted 24 hours instead of three and a half - and that's how it generally goes for KC as a visitor on the carpet (17-37 straight up and 23-29-2 against the line since 1998) and inside NFL domes (10-16 straight up and 11-14-1 against the line since that same year). And the home team in this series has won and covered five in a row by a combined 144-71 so take the points - at least.

INDIANAPOLIS 23, Oakland 13 (+6 1/2) - The Raiders on artificial turf? As a certain former First Lady famously said, just say no.

BALTIMORE 27, Cleveland 7 (+6) - Lamar Jackson is not an elite passer now and probably never will be one, but he's better than what Baker Mayfield is, which is Johnny Manziel without the drinking problem. And since 2008, the Browns have been Baltimore's little b----es, as they say in prison culture: 19-3 outright, and 15-7 pointwise.

CHICAGO 31, Minnesota 14 (+3) - It's Kirk Cousins against an over-.500 team (very likely) and the Vikings outdoors and on grass, definitely (since 2001 Minnesota is 30-79-2 straight up outdoors, and 29-62-2 straight up on grass), and also the Vikings at Soldier Field (where they're 3-15 straight up and 4-12-2 against the spread, also since 2001), definitely. So I'd say that the Bears are going to win and cover - definitely.

DENVER 16, Jacksonville 10 (+3) - When Joe Flacco is 50 years old, he will be a better quarterback than Gardner Minshew will ever be.

HOUSTON 20, Carolina 10 (+5) - Despite his over-the-top performance against Arizona in his debut, Kyle Allen (who will never be confused with Josh Allen - or even Woody Allen!), another currently-starting quarterback who is among Kaepernick's vast inferiors in talent until proven otherwise, steps way up in company here facing the rock-ribbed Texans defense. The game is also on artificial turf - upon which Carolina is 16-30-1 straight up and 16-31 against the line since 2008.

Seattle 24, ARIZONA 23 (+4) - The last six meetings in this series have all been decided by six points or less, including one tie, and the Cardinals have covered in all six - and the Seasickhawks have left their backers feelin' kind of seasick both on grass (51-66-5 against the line dating all the way back to 1998!) and in domes (14-24-4 against the line since 2006) for a long time.

L.A. RAMS 28, Tampa Bay 20 (+10 1/2) - It is easy to overreact to Tampa Bay's blown save last week against the Giants, and the Rams have won and covered five in a row over the Bucs. But those five games were decided by a total of 40 points, which is eight points per game, and a "Looking Ahead Advisory" is in effect for Los Angeles, with a game at Seattle next up for the Rams, and on Thursday night no less. Take the points.

Dallas 30, NEW ORLEANS 17 (+3 1/2) - The Saints were outgained 515 total yards to 265 in Seattle last week but a punt return for one touchdown and a fumble recovered in the end zone for a second TD enabled them to win. Can't see them getting that lucky two weeks in a row.


MONDAY NIGHT

PITTSBURGH 16, Cincinnati 13 (+4 1/2) - Mason Rudolph, still another sub-Kaepernicker in talent, gets the start for the Steelers in this one, so take the points despite Pittsburgh's lopsided recent domination of the series - 11-1 straight up, 8-4 against the spread in the last dozen.


BEST BETS: GREEN BAY, N.Y. GIANTS, CHICAGO

Last edited by Anthony; 09-24-2019 at 08:28 PM.
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