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Old 10-24-2019, 04:25 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 8 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 6-8. Season totals: 39-64-3, Pct. .382. Best Bets: 10-10-1.

Home team in capital letters; points (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

MINNESOTA
40, Washington 10 (+16) - The second stop in 11 days for the Kirk Cousins Whistle Stop Revenge Tour, as Cousins wants to stick it to Daniel Snyder and Bruce Allen something fierce - and talk about a "paired top" as horse racing handicappers say: Against Detroit, Cousins was 24 for 34 for 337 yards and four touchdowns for a passer rating of 141.4; before that, against Philadelphia, he went 22 out of 29 for 333 yards, four touchdowns and one interception, which is 138.4. And it sure doesn't hurt that Washington is 6-19 straight up and 10-14-1 against the line since 2013 as a visitor on the carpet, and 5-21 and 11-14-1 respectively since 2009 inside NFL domes.


SUNDAY

JACKSONVILLE
23, N.Y. Jets 7 (+4 1/2) - In his career, Adam Gase has 24 losses by double digits, and 24 wins by any margin - and the Jets have lost nine in a row on grass, only two of which they have covered. Get out your pornstache masks, folks, while you still can (Nick Foles becomes eligible to return in Week 11).

DETROIT 31, N.Y. Giants 27 (+7) - Same old Lions: Sixth in the league in passing, but 18th in rushing (Detroit hasn't finished in the top half of the league running the ball since Barry Sanders retired!) and next to last in total defense. If Daniel Jones can avoid costly turnovers, the Giants should cover.

L.A. Rams 35, Cincinnati 14 (+13) - The Rams righted the ship the week before it sails to London, and it is the Bengals who are the one team whose defense has allowed more yards than the Lions - and don't be surprised if, come Week 16, Zac Taylor and Brian Flores square off in what could be billed as either the "Tua Tagovailoa Bowl" or the "Maiden Bowl."

BUFFALO 30, Philadelphia 7 (+1) - Only one point? And please, put DeSean Jackson under the knife for the sports hernia we all know he has - and with a brutal three-game home stand to follow, the Eagles are staring down the barrel of 3-8.

Seattle 27, ATLANTA 13 (+3 1/2) - Matt Ryan is questionable (the dreaded high ankle sprain), and since only one team in NFL history - the 1970 Bengals - has ever made the playoffs after starting 1-6, there is no point in risking re-injuring the ankle by bringing him back prematurely. And the Falcons left their retractable roof open last week (as did the Colts); if they do that again here, that would greatly benefit the Seahawks, and especially those who would bet on them, because they're 15-25-4 against the spread indoors dating back to their loss to Pittsburgh at Detroit in Super Bowl XL.

INDIANAPOLIS 21, Denver 17 (+6 1/2) - "Nowhere to run to, baby, nowhere to hide" - so sang Martha and the Vandellas for the Motown empire in 1965. Fifty-four years later, the same thing applies in the NFL: Home teams are an atrocious 37-66-3 against the spread, and even 46-59-1 straight up, and favorites are 44-58-3 against the spread (one game opened at pick 'em). And while the Broncos are terrible on artificial turf - 13-23 against the line on it since 2007 - curiously, they have won and covered their last four in domes by a combined 119-58 so take the points given all the crazy trends stated above.

TENNESSEE 23, Tampa Bay 13 (+2 1/2) - The Bucs have never beaten The Adams Family on the road - 0-7 straight up, 2-4-1 against the spread, outscored 166-96. And pop goes the "weasel line" again.

NEW ORLEANS 30, Arizona 21 (+11 1/2) - Drew Brees was limited in practice on Wednesday, while Alvin Kamara, who Chris Berman would no doubt refer to as "King Kamaramara" (after Hawaii's King Kamehameha, whose shadow stepping in front of carried the death penalty) were he not retired, did not practice - and the Cards have covered four straight on the road dating back to last year's season finale so another road underdog covers.

CHICAGO 24, L.A. Chargers 14 (+5 1/2) - Not that I would waste my time watching those late-night talk shows, but I'd imagine that they have been filled with Mitchell Trubisky jokes the past couple of nights. Maybe the rest of the week they will be filled with jokes about how inept the Chargers have always played at Soldier Field: They have never won or covered there, going 0-4 both ways by an average margin of an even 10 points a pop (98-58).

HOUSTON 27, Oakland 24 (+7) - Another example of the type of game in which road underdogs have been routinely covering. Oakland broke a long drought on artificial turf four weeks ago, and Gruden's youth movement makes the future Vegas Raiders (or will they re-name themselves the Gamblers after the USFL's Houston Gamblers?) a good bet in this spot - no pun intended.

SAN FRANCISCO 17, Carolina 13 (+6 1/2) - The Panthers are 6-1 both ways in their last seven against the Niners, and Carolina has won four in a row coming off a bye week while San Francisco is 7-16 both ways in fatigue games - and this is yet another example of the kind of game that road underdogs have been covering all year long.

NEW ENGLAND 33, Cleveland 6 (+10 1/2) - Adjusting for "inflation" - the average NFL team scored/allowed 17.2 points and gained/allowed 286 yards per game in 1977, the year before the chuck rule went into effect, and scored/allowed 23.3 points and gained/allowed 352 yards per game last year - this season's New England defense could be the greatest of all time. And lest you be tempted to take the road underdog here as well, the Browns are 10-19-1 against the spread on rugs since 2012, and Cleveland 2.0 has never won in Occam's Razor, with an 0-4 outright and 1-3 pointwise record there and outscored 97-62.

Green Bay 35, KANSAS CITY 17 (+3) - If the Chiefs had a running game, the Packers shoving eight in the box to stop it and make Matt Moore beat them would make sense. But since they don't - KC is averaging 82 yards rushing per game, 25th in the league - Aaron Rodgers won't need a second straight perfect passer rating game to win this one, and do so easily.


MONDAY NIGHT

PITTSBURGH 20, Miami 10 (+16) - In five quarters since replacing the benched Josh Rosen, Ryan Fitzpatrick has had a passer rating of 94.4 (Rosen's for the entire season is 52.0). And the Steelers have done more than their share of winning but not covering off a bye week: They're 18-12 straight up coming off the bye, but 12-18 against the spread - and Mason Rudolph (expected to return here) is better than Devlin Hodges, but not by much. There is a built-in parlay on this game - the Dolphins and the under (the total opened at 43).


BEST BETS: MINNESOTA, BUFFALO, TENNESSEE

Last edited by Anthony; 10-24-2019 at 05:11 AM.
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