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Old 04-16-2007, 03:43 PM   #1
buckeyefan78
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Default Edwards: Southern Democrat with Dixie appeal...

EASLEY, S.C. Presidential candidate John Edwards visited his small town birthplace Monday to announce a plan to help rural economies and tout himself as a Southern Democrat with Dixie appeal.

Edwards added the six-page Rural Recovery Act to his growing list of policy proposals, which also include a withdrawal of forces from Iraq, universal health care and a repeal of some of President Bush's tax cuts to pay for it.

Some of his positions put him to the left of southern conservative voters, so Edwards was trying to woo them by focusing on his common roots and promising to make rural America a priority.

He began the day at the small pink house in Seneca, S.C., where he lived the first months of his life, then campaigned with the breakfast crowd at Jimmy's Family Restaurant in nearby Easley. He was scheduled to travel to Nashville, Tenn., for a lunchtime press conference followed by a bluegrass concert headlined by Del McCoury and Rodney Crowell at the Ryman Auditorium, which was home to the Grand Ole Opry radio show from 1943 to 1974.

John Edwards Works Morning Shift at New York Nursing Home Elizabeth Edwards Says She's Scared of 'Rabid Republican' Gun-Toting Neighbor Elizabeth Edwards Says She's Surprised By Criticism About Decision to Continue Husband's Campaign Wife of John Edwards Says Her Cancer is More Treatable Than Feared John Edwards Opens Up About Death of Teenage Son Edwards is trying to boost his image of electability in the general election campaign. The last three Democratic presidents have been from the South and Edwards is the only southern Democrat in the 2008 race.

But he's also looking to pick up votes in the rural states that will play an important role in the Democratic primary. States that plan to hold elections on the super primary day of Feb. 5, 2008, include Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri and Oklahoma.

His rural recovery tour included a stop Sunday night in southwest New Hampshire, which holds the first primary, and will lead to an upcoming weekend tour across Iowa, which holds the first nominating caucus. He also planned a rally in Roanoke, Va., Thursday, headlined by bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley and Ben Jones, who played Cooter in the television series "The Dukes of Hazzard."

Edwards' rural recovery plan is rooted in his campaign platform of addressing economic inequalities.

It includes $1 billion in spending on initiatives like increased investment in rural small businesses, education, health care and resources to fight methamphetamine abuse. It also offers an overall commitment to make sure rural communities are first in line for health care, energy and anti-poverty resources.

"Too often, the problems of rural America are forgotten by politicians living and working in far-off capital cities," Edwards' plan began. "As a native of a small rural town, John Edwards knows that America cannot turn its back on rural areas."

Edwards won the early South Carolina primary four years ago, in part by highlighting his roots in the state. Although he was born in Seneca, he was raised in Robbins, N.C., and served North Carolina in the Senate before becoming John Kerry's running mate in the 2004 election.

Kerry sent Edwards to campaign across the South in 2004, but President Bush swept the region.

"The Democrats have lost over the past several decades so much support among white Southern voters that it becomes difficult to make majorities," said Earl Black, co-author of a new book called "Divided America" that examines regional voting differences. He said the South has shifted from a Democratic to a Republican majority as people have moved out of poor rural areas and into suburbia.

"They have conservative social views, but they also have conservative economic views," Black said. "So the Republicans are giving them what they want on both dimensions."

Associated Press

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,266287,00.html

**********************************************************

Wise move by Edwards IMO.

5 Presidential elections since LBJ signed the 1965 Voting Rights Act where a Yankee Democrat ran (Humphrey, Mondale-2, Dukakis, Kerry). This is the point where the South went GOP for good.

11 Confederate states + Missouri + Kentucky (two border states that had pockets of "Confederate rule") = 13

5 (elections) X 13 (Confederate states) = 65

Only ONCE has a Yankee Democrat won a "Confederate" state since 1965...Humphrey won Texas in 1968 and that was only because Wallace split the vote with Nixon.

1 outta 65. In fact, Wallace won 5 states in the South in 1968 if memory serves. So since 1964 the Dems have won 1 southern state with a Yankee nominee while Wallace won 5 back in 1968. Amazing.

The Dems won't win ONE Confederate state with a Yankee for Pres...esp. a woman (Clinton) or an African American. (Obama)

Plus you throw in your "10 for 10s". There are ten states outside of the South that have voted for ten straight Republicans no matter who was on the Democratic side (starting in 1968). These states are all located in the Plains and Mountain West (Kansas, North Dakota, and so on).

Still not convinced the nation...well...the South anyway...is ready for a Yankee Democrat (last being JFK).
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Old 04-16-2007, 03:53 PM   #2
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The Dems won't win ONE Confederate state with a Yankee for Pres...esp. a woman (Clinton) or an African American.
Yeah, but the Republicans won't win any of the Northeastern states or west coast states NO MATTER WHO they run.

Midwestern states are becoming more liberal, which will determine future elections, along with states like Florida and Nevada.

Liberals shouldn't worry about the south. They don't need the south to win. As long as they focus on their base (educated, elite types from the northeast and west coast) along with some focus on midwestern issues, they shouldn't have any problems.
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Old 04-16-2007, 07:32 PM   #3
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Yeah, but the Republicans won't win any of the Northeastern states or west coast states NO MATTER WHO they run.

Midwestern states are becoming more liberal, which will determine future elections, along with states like Florida and Nevada.

Liberals shouldn't worry about the south. They don't need the south to win. As long as they focus on their base (educated, elite types from the northeast and west coast) along with some focus on midwestern issues, they shouldn't have any problems.
A few points...

1. Midwestern states are becoming more liberal? Iowa went Blue to Red between 2000 and 2004. Ohio went Red in 2000 and 2004. Michigan and Wisconsin were "somewhat" close the last two times around. The Dems have 2 locks in the Midwest: Illinois and Minnesota...that's it. The Midwest WON'T determine future elections...the population growth there is extremely slow in comparison to the South and West. Grant it, an older pop. votes more but the Midwest is losing their power on the national stage.

2. Florida is in the "Confederate block" despite being close the last two times around. They went Bush in 2000 even with Gore (a Confederate) running. 2004 wasn't that close cuz the Dems went Yankee.

3. Nevada has 5 electoral votes and is considered a 50/50 state. Clark County goes Blue...the rest of it goes Red. They are a non-factor in 2008.

I'm not saying the Dems need the South to win but they DRAMATICALLY decrease their chances by not getting a few of the Confederate states.

10 elections since 1964 (South goes GOP, North and West go Dem)...

5 Yankee Dems: 0-5 ( Humphrey, Carter, Mondale - 2, Kerry all lose)
5 Confederate Dems: 3-2 (Clinton - 2, Carter win)

The percentages CLEARLY show the Dems should run Edwards or any other Confederate over Obama and Clinton.

You spot the GOP the following states when you run Obama or Clinton...

The Confederate Block

Florida - 27
Georgia - 15
South Carolina - 8
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Tennessee - 11
Kentucky - 8
Alabama - 9
Mississippi - 6
Louisiana - 9
Missouri - 11
Arkansas - 6
Texas - 34

Plus the ten states in the Plains and Mountain West that always vote GOP no matter what (and Indiana...ALWAYS goes GOP)...

Oklahoma - 7
Kansas - 6
Nebraska - 5
North Dakota - 3
South Dakota - 3
Montana - 3
Wyoming - 3
Idaho - 4
Utah - 4
Alaska - 3
Indiana - 11

Then you throw in Colorado and Arizona that will most likely go GOP (not 100%...but very close to a lock)...

Colorado - 9
Arizona - 10

Quick math tells us it's 243 without having to win any "battleground states" yet.

You only need 270 to win.

Dem locks...

California - 55
Oregon - 7
Washington - 11
Minnesota - 10
Illinois - 21
Maine - 4
Vermont - 3
Mass. - 12
R.I. - 4
Conn. - 7
New York - 31
New Jersey - 15
Delaware - 3
Maryland - 10
D.C. - 3
Hawaii - 4

200?

243 to 200 when you add up the locks on both sides. That's bleak.

Then we have the 9 battleground states (and where they went in 2004)

Nevada - 5 - GOP
New Mexico - 5 - GOP
Iowa - 7 - GOP
Pennsylvania - 21 - Dem
Wisconsin - 10 - Dem
Michigan - 17 - Dem
Ohio - 20 - GOP
N.H. - 4 - Dem
West Virginia - 5 - GOP

Final score:
GOP - 285
Dem - 252

The Dems would have to hold all the battleground states they won in 2004 PLUS snag either of the following 2 combos...

1. Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, West Virginia = 22 (all went GOP in 04)
2. Just win Ohio = 20 (final score: Dem - 272 to 265)

You are once again asking Ohio to get the job done cuz scenario #1 is a helluva longshot.

Can it be done? Yes...not likely but possible.

If you nominate Edwards you might be able to steal South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, FLORIDA and Tennessee. Clinton won 6 of the 13 Confederate states in both elections...including Florida. Plus Yankees in the Midwest (my previous list) will vote for Edwards. They don't care where a guy comes from. They don't have that Confederate mindset. By not nominating Edwards you are gonna have to win Ohio and pull off several more of your battleground states from 2004.

All I'm saying is you put yourself in a hole when you nominate a Yankee.

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Old 04-17-2007, 12:47 AM   #4
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Buckeye, will Mr. Edwards' loss of his Senate seat be a detriment to his attempt to be elected?
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Old 04-17-2007, 11:47 AM   #5
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Midwestern states are becoming more liberal?
I am talking in the recent mid term elections. Ohio elected a Democratic Governor and replaced a republican Senator with a Democrat. Other states did much of the same things.

Quote:
The Midwest WON'T determine future elections
If the Democrats would;ve won OHIO in the last 2 presidential elections, they would have had the white house. The Mid West, specifically Ohio, WILL determine the next election.

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All I'm saying is you put yourself in a hole when you nominate a Yankee.
Maybe so, but I'd rather run a compitent "Yankee" than a moron from the South. I am not saying Edwards is a moron, but he isn't the best candidate, nor the best option for our country.

George Bush may be more electable than say Ruddolph Gulliani, but that doesn't mean he is a better option for this country.
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Old 04-17-2007, 01:19 PM   #6
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Buckeye, will Mr. Edwards' loss of his Senate seat be a detriment to his attempt to be elected?
No.

The only chance for the Dems to win is to run him or another Confederate.

Fresh...

If the Midwest, in particular Ohio, will determine the 2008 Election I think the Dems are doomed.

Brown beat DeWine 56% to 44%.

Dan beat Montgomery 53% to 47%.

I'll give you Strickland destroying Blackwell.

Couple of things though...

How couldn't a Dem win in Ohio in 2006? We both live here. My God, the GOP did everything short of eating the hearts of little babies the last 4 years and the results for Senator and AG were still close. Strickland beating Blackwell? That was strictly due to the fact that Taft destroyed the chances of anyone from the GOP getting the bid. Plus the southern GOP Buckeyes would never vote for a black man...even if he was a Republican.

Ohio lost the most manufacturing jobs in the nation from 2000 to 2004 and the people in the southern and western part of the state still voted for Bush (grant it...most of those jobs are in the northeast part of the state).

In Ohio...

Bush beat Gore by roughly 177,000 in 2000 (Nader got 117,000 votes).
Bush beat Kerry by roughly 118,000 in 2004 (no notable 3rd party candidate)

Hell, Ohio didn't even get all of Nader's people over those four years. I still see the GOP taking Ohio right now...but the chance is there. Still, it's bleak for the Dems in Ohio IMO.

The other states that went Dem from GOP for a Senator...

Missouri (will NEVER vote for a Yankee Dem)
Montana (GOP since Moses came down from the mountain)
Rhode Island (always Dem...no big deal)
Virginia (see Montana)
Pennsylvania (I'll give you this one as a good sign for the Dems...but they seem to be going Blue anyway)

This list proves nothing IMO. PA is good news but Ohio was a no brainer with all the corruption in the state over the last 4-6 years.

Again...when you nominate Clinton or Obama you put the "Confederate Block" into action which means the Dems will have to win all the states they did in 2004 (which includes the swing states of PA, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Oregon) PLUS either one of the two following scenarios...

1. Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, West Virginia (which all went GOP in 2004)

OR

2. Ohio

Like I said...not out of the realm of possiblity but DEFINITELY a longshot. I just feel the Dems should concentrate on winning the WH back...PERIOD...at this point. You increase your chances dramatically with Edwards.

They better hope that Nader doesn't run again on the Green ticket (and I think he is). The tree huggers in Oregon and Wisconsin could swing those states right.
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Old 04-17-2007, 01:24 PM   #7
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Followup question, Buckeye -- Isn't it possible that the GOP could, successfully, paint Edwards as a "loser" because he couldn't even hold his seat in the Senate? This would essentially eliminate his chance to win the White House.
Also, good analysis of the voting patterns in the past couple of elections.
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Old 04-17-2007, 01:34 PM   #8
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Followup question, Buckeye -- Isn't it possible that the GOP could, successfully, paint Edwards as a "loser" because he couldn't even hold his seat in the Senate? This would essentially eliminate his chance to win the White House.
Also, good analysis of the voting patterns in the past couple of elections.
Oh Hell catman...I'm just talking about having the CHANCE to win.

They have NO chance with Obama or Clinton cuz you automatically lose the South and then have to win in my scenario...

1. Win every state you did in 2004 (which includes those big swing states).

2. Win ALL 4 of those GOP states (Nevada, NM, Iowa, WV) OR Ohio.

From a historical perspective...that is just SOOOOO daunting it's amazing. Essentially all those states in #2 are swing and so it Ohio...so you could look at that as a positive cuz you have a chance...but remember...YOU HAVE TO WIN EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM PLUS ALL THE SWINGS YOU WON IN 2004 IF YOU RUN A YANKEE CUZ YOU CAN'T WIN ONE CONFEDERATE STATE...PERIOD.

There were only 2 Yankee Dems that were President in the 20th Century. FDR...who led during the largest war this earth has ever seen. JFK...and they killed him.

I don't know if Edwards could beat the GOP...but he is the only hope. I suspect if he ran against Rudy he could have a chance. Despite being a GOPer, those good old boys down South see him as a Yankee. Hell, he was mayor of New York. That's almost as bad as being from Chicago to those folks.

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Old 04-17-2007, 01:37 PM   #9
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If the Midwest, in particular Ohio, will determine the 2008 Election I think the Dems are doomed.
Let me give you some more optimistic numbers for the Democrats. I live in Hamilton county. No democrat has won the congressional seat for this district in over 50 years. Most times the Republican wins by double digit percentage. In '04, Paul Hacket (D) lost to Schmidt (R) by less than 1% (I think). It was very close.

In addition, the loss of jobs in Ohio, and the corruption of the republican party have not been forgotten.

Ohio has a lot of colleges and college towns. Of course, college students don't vote in high numbers. But with a candidate like Obama, who seems to inspire the youth, many students will come to vote for him. If Obama get the nomination, I fully expect a record turnout for college age voters, which would serve the democrats well, especially in Ohio.
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Old 04-17-2007, 01:48 PM   #10
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You wanna stack Obama in the college towns vs. the good old boys in southern and western Ohio?

No chance in hell Fresh.

2004...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pag.../P/00/map.html

Face it...you win the northeast rust belt...

Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Summit (Akron), Mahoning (Y-Town), Trumbull (Warren) plus Lucas (Toledo) and Athens (Athens...Ohio U).

Then you hope you pull even in Franklin and Hamilton...which never happens.

Then the other 80 counties go GOP.

:lol:

The votes just aren't there anymore. Those rust belt cities only have half the population they did in the 60s and 70s.
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Old 04-17-2007, 01:51 PM   #11
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Then the other 80 counties go GOP.
Cleveland has the largest population of all of Ohio. The votes of those in the cities of Columbus and Cincinnati will go Democrat. Most of the suburban votes go republican.

My point is, the last few elections have been close in Ohio. If the college vote doubles, that would be enough to push the democrats over the republicans.
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Old 04-17-2007, 01:59 PM   #12
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My point is, the last few elections have been close in Ohio. If the college vote doubles, that would be enough to push the democrats over the republicans.
That's even more of a stretch than my Clinton/Obama national scenario. You do realize you are saying "if the college vote doubles"...?

Young people don't vote and most of the young people in Ohio only stay here until they are 23 or 24.

Ohio doesn't have the numbers anymore Fresh. You can't pull blue-collar, union, young, formally uneducated votes out of this state anymore when all that is left are the elderly and working professionals in the burbs (who are now in their 30s and 40s with higher incomes). I argued this point with countless people in 2000 and 2004 and the trend has only gotten more defined since then. How would the votes suddenly return? They rebuild the factories in the north? Why do you think Michigan is hedging right now? Once they run another cut of jobs on the assembly lines in Detroit...that state will fall prey to the NRA, rural farmers in the northern part of that state and go GOP for good too.

BTW...Columbus is the largest city in the state. Cuyahoga is the largest county in the state though.
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Old 04-17-2007, 02:06 PM   #13
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I argued this point with countless people in 2000 and 2004 and the trend has only gotten more defined since then.
How do you figure? Kerry was closer to Bush than Gore was, meaning Democratic gains from 2000 to 2004. A senate seat went democratic, fairly decisively. The governor went Democrat, easily. Democratic congressional candidates are making gains in nearly every county.

The trend shows exactly the opposite of what you are saying. If Kerry lost by more than Gore, you may have a point, but the exact opposite happened.

Again, the only chance the democrats have is Obama. Edwards won't get the ase of the democratic party out to vote. He won't get the youth out to vote. He won't win a single confederate state, nor will any democrat.

The only way for the democrats to win is inspire the base, and hope that the young people in places like Ohio jump on tha band wagon.
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Old 04-17-2007, 02:24 PM   #14
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How do you figure? Kerry was closer to Bush than Gore was, meaning Democratic gains from 2000 to 2004. A senate seat went democratic, fairly decisively. The governor went Democrat, easily. Democratic congressional candidates are making gains in nearly every county.

The trend shows exactly the opposite of what you are saying. If Kerry lost by more than Gore, you may have a point, but the exact opposite happened.

Again, the only chance the democrats have is Obama. Edwards won't get the ase of the democratic party out to vote. He won't get the youth out to vote. He won't win a single confederate state, nor will any democrat.

The only way for the democrats to win is inspire the base, and hope that the young people in places like Ohio jump on tha band wagon.
Kerry lost by less than Gore but Nader didn't run Green. You saw the numbers.

2000 - lost by 177,000 (with Nader getting 117,000)
2004 - lost by 118,000 (with no 3rd candidate)

Don't you see Fresh...you gained 79,000 out of 117,000 votes that went Green AND STILL LOST BY A DECENT MARGIN. If Nader runs again (and I think he is), you have to figure that into a loss for the Dems. And this is after 4 years of Bush. I mean...how the hell could they still vote for him?

Holding up a midterm election in Ohio where the GOP couldn't have won had they been giving gold away isn't convincing me.

Let me ask you directly if you acknowledge my theory then (I consider it FACT but guess it's a theory)...

If Obama or Clinton run do you agree that the following is the only way they can win...

1. Win every single state they did in 2004 (which includes the swing states of PA, New Hampshire, Michigan, Maine, Oregon, and Wisconsin).

2. Win all of these states ( Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, West Virginia) that went GOP in 2004.

OR

Win Ohio

********************************************************

I mean...you say Edwards won't win a single Confederate state...which may be true (though I'd say he'd win S.C., N.C., and Arkansas...at least). But do you acknowledge that Obama and Clinton have NO CHANCE at winning a Confederate state? If you confirm it as you wrote in your last post...you realize that the Dems have little to no hope of winning...don't you?
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Old 04-17-2007, 02:35 PM   #15
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But do you acknowledge that Obama and Clinton have NO CHANCE at winning a Confederate state?
Of course, I said no democrat has a chance in those states, except Florida, which is technically a "confederate" state, but is very different from the others, with a large hispanic population, and a large retired population who are worried about health care and social security.

I find it much more likely that Obama will win all the states that Kerry won, with the addition of Florida and/or Ohio, than Edwards winning any confederate states. Edwards is still associated with Kerry, whether that is fair or not. He is a trial lawyer, which doesn't sit well with the "good ol' boys" as you describe them. And he is quite liberal, especially on issues like homosexuality.

Obama can take Florida or Ohio, and maybe even pick up one or two of the other "swing" states you mentioned. Edwards CAN NOT win in the south.
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