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Old 10-02-2007, 04:29 PM   #1
Silver Dragon
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Default Silver Dragon's Week 5 Picks

What a wild ride Week 4 rolled us through. Following to the letter the saying, “Any given Sunday,” Week 4 saw many NFL picks on the wrong side of .500. Detroit proved Chicago has lost their Super Bowl defense, Cleveland denied any domination from Baltimore’s defense, the power house that was San Diego has fallen to 1-3, Atlanta claimed their first win post-Vick, and Pittsburgh fell from the ranks of the undefeated.

Week 4 also delivered me a shocking defeat as I fell into the sub .500 category for the first time this season. Week 4 found me on the wrong side of the winner’s column as I recorded a low 6-8 week. Although my season totals remain above .500, they desperately call out for improvement this week. Currently standing at 36 of 62 games, or 36-26 (.581), I can only look forward to a better week in Week 5. So without any further delay, let’s get down to this weeks analysis.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Open date: Cincinnati Bengals, Minnesota Vikings, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams 1:00 PM
Could Arizona be the first team to run a successful quarterback tandem? Or should we call it a community quarterback system? After a near comeback win against Baltimore in Week 3, the trade in and out between Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner provided a victory over undefeated Pittsburgh in Week 4. The Rams on the other hand are 0-4. With the possibility of Steven Jackson remaining on the injured list, and Marc Bulger struggling to lead this team to a victory, it’s hard to see a win for this team this week, but Week 4 proved upsets are reality.
Rams claim first victory of season.

Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans 1:00 PM
The Falcons claimed their first ‘victory after Vick’ last week as Joey Harrington connected with Michael Jenkins for two touchdowns and Morten Anderson tapped over four field goals. This is a great personal victory for this team, especially against a Houston team that seemed to be vastly improved although missing Ahman Green and Andre Johnson. However, I can’t see a repeat as the Falcons travel to Tennessee to take on a fresh and rested Vince Young and Titans team that have looked pretty hot up to this point.
Titans pick up where they left off, with a win.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints 1:00 PM
The Saints have stunned everyone with their less than impressive play to this point in the season. After establishing themselves as an offensive powerhouse last season, they have started this season as just plain offensive. However, the Panthers will be traveling to New Orleans, giving the Saints a second chance under a hometown crowd, more than likely taking the field without Jake Delhomme for a second week in a row. Unfortunately for the Panthers, David Carr has failed to find chemistry with Steve Smith right away. Could this be the week Drew Brees and Reggie Bush turn things around for the Saints?
Saints finally get into the win column.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots 1:00 PM
Derek Anderson, with the assistance of Braylon Edwards and Jamal Lewis has been able to give the Browns a few flashes of brilliance, but brilliance with some inconsistency. It will be interesting to watch this team as the season continues. However, this week they will travel to Foxboro in a match up with the Patriots. Even if this team was able to keep pace and upset Cincinnati in week 2, they will need more than just the alignment of a few stars in their corner to overcome the Tom Brady / Randy Moss connection. I foresee the continuing pattern in Cleveland…Lost, won, lost, and won…this week?
Patriots continue to roll on.

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins 1:00 PM
One thing is for sure in Detroit, the Lions have improved…greatly!!! That doesn’t mean they’re great. They’ve just made giant steps forward from what was a terrible team last year. Jon Kitna is taking care of business and it has to be said that this offense has been fun to watch. However, Philadelphia exposed several holes in the Detroit defense. Can Clinton Portis follow Brian Westbrook’s lead? Can Jason Campbell repeat McNabb’s performance? Or will the Detroit defense continue to haunt Campbell’s touchdown to interception ratio? I found this a tough call, but my decision will rest with…
Kitna brings Lions one game closer to 10+ promised wins.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs 1:00 PM
Kansas City made it known that they weren’t as bad as we thought they were. Jacksonville put forth a solid performance just before a break in their bye week. This week David Garrard will with him the run combo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew into Kansas City to see if they can out run Larry Johnson. However, The Damon Huard / Dwayne Bowe combo has begun to find some chemistry. As much as it pains me to do so, I have to take the side of the home team this week.
Chiefs continue to make Arrowhead Stadium a tough place to play.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans 1:00 PM
Sooner or later the Dolphins have to pull off a win. I don’t think a team has finished a season without a win since the 1976 Bucs were 0-14. Or could it be that we are over due for another winless team for the history books? I’m not going to predict that far ahead, but I will give my two-cents on this match up. Houston has improved, Matt Schaub has worked wonders for this offense, we could see the return of either or both Ahman Green and Andre Johnson, and Trent Green has been awful in Miami.
Texans get back on a winning track.

New York Jets at New York Giants 1:00 PM
Jets have yet to win on the road this season…um, if you can call this match up ‘going on the road’. Further more, the only team the Jets have been able to rise above has been Miami, who sits at 0-4! Even with last Weeks reminder of any team, any Sunday, I simply can’t reproduce the chant this week as Thomas Jones has yet to rush for a touchdown and Chad Pennington hasn’t established this offense as one of the higher ranking passing teams. The Giants defense has been clicking, and the Jets will feel it. That, and I expect Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress to continue to roll through this week along with the ground support of Derrick Ward.
Giants rise above .500 for first time this season.

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM
Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander will take their 3-1 Seahawks to Pittsburgh where they will face Ben Roethlisberger and Willie Parker of the 3-1 Steelers. Better yet,…both teams have suffered their only lose to Arizona, in Arizona. To me, this makes for an interesting match up. Even though Pittsburgh had looked good through the first three weeks, it can be argued that they haven’t played any formidable teams this season. Of course, after the struggles that Cincinnati have faced, the same could be argued about the Seahawks. This makes for another tough pick, and I’m going to have to side with the home team and what appears to be a tough defense.
Steelers rebound for a home field win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts 4:05 PM
I don’t believe anyone outside of Tampa fans would have guessed that the Buccaneers would be 3-1 at this point in the season, but not only are they matched up with the Colts this week, but they have to play in Indy. Most teams have found that blitzing Peyton Manning will usually get you beat deep. Then Denver proved last week that patience and coverage will protect you from the big play, but still gets you beat. Any given Sunday? Sure. But don’t let the absence of Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison fool you, Manning still gets protection in the pocket and has numerous other receivers in his arsenal. Based on the facts laid out before me…
Colts move to 5-0.

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers 4:15 PM
Ravens offense has never been a powerhouse; it’s been their defense that has made winning come this teams way. However, the Raven’s defense looked less than frightful last week as the Browns stunned them with an upset that concluded without a single sack recorded for this fearsome defense. And now at 2-2, they must try to recover on the road. Fortunate for them, they must do it against a reeling 49er team. This in no way guarantees a win for Baltimore, as their own future is a little questionable, but this should help. I expected much more from Alex Smith and Frank Gore in San Fran, but I’m tentatively leaning the way of Baltimore by a field goal.
Ravens squeak by to regain a .500+ record.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos 4:15 PM
If you believe that San Diego is suffering from a fluke and will soon return to last season’s former glory, then you expect the Chargers to Charge into Mile High and claim a victory over their division rival. However, if you have come to see the error of ever believing that Norv Turner belongs anywhere near a head coaching position, then you also grieve for the destruction of such a great team only one year removed. If Travis Henry avoids missing the game due to injury, he should match LaDainian Tomlinson yard for yard although L.T. may see the endzone more. However, should Henry not play, Selvin Young has impressed that he may be able to fill in quite nicely having averaged 9.2 yards on 15 carries. Jay Cutler will out perform Philip Rivers hands down, and Brandon Marshall will continue to let the league know he is a receiver not to be ignored. Will Javon Walker return this week? Surprisingly, the question to ask in Denver is whether or not their highly talented defense will pull their chemistry together. This would be the week to find their run defense.
Broncos remain in the fight for top of the AFC West.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers 8:15 PM
I think last week really brought the Bears into question. With dents and dings, this defense simply can’t perform as they have in the past and they can’t seem to get a break off the field. I think that last week I said that ANYTHING would be better than Rex Grossman and Brian Griese was, but not much. This could continue to get ugly for the Bears, especially now that they must travel to Lambeau Field and face the undefeated Packers. Brett Favre has been resurrected this season with a vengeance and the Packers defense will only create more woes for a disoriented Bears offense.
Packers continue to impress.

Monday, October, 8 2007, Monday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills 8:30 PM
The Bills took a step in the right direction last week as they replaced J.P. Losman for rookie Trent Edwards to claim their first victory of the season. However, there is no reason to get too excited, as the only team they defeated was the also struggling Jets. This week they host Tony Romo and Terrell Owens of the undefeated and super hot Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are outscoring everyone, from match ups to just plain everyone in the NFL. Does anyone think it will be the Bills defense that will bring this team down? Add to this the fact that the Cowboys defense has been doing fairly good and this should be a blow out. A Bills win here would have to be a major upset. Not this week.
Cowboys easily advance through another week undefeated.

And that concludes the predictions on another exciting week in the NFL. With only four teams remaining undefeated all the other teams will be locked in a struggle to stay one step behind with hopes of overtaking them should they fall because in the words of Vincent Lombardi, “If winning isn’t everything, why do they keep score?”
-Silver Dragon
:redhot: Silver Dragon Says:redhot:
"I reject your reality and substitute my own" -Adam Savage (Originally from The Dungeonmaster)
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Old 10-05-2007, 11:08 PM   #2
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Once again I will have to make this week ATS picks short and sweet. I completed last week’s picks 8-6 to bring my season total to 35-21-3 (.593). That average doesn’t include the wash games that came out even. Not the greatest week, but an above .500 week shouldn’t send anyone to the poor house. Let’s see if I can’t improve in Week 5.
Sunday, October 7th, 2007
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints -3.5
This is the week the Saints bounce back. Panthers injuries take their toll. Saints win and give the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs +2
At home in Arrowhead I see the Chiefs winning so take the points and look for the straight win.
Detroit Lions +3.5
Washington Redskins
Lions have actually looked decent this year and I’m not sold on the Redskin D just yet. Lions with the upset, take the points.
Atlanta Falcons +8.5
Tennessee Titans
Titans are looking good, but after the Falcons pulled their first win last week I’m not to quick to give the points. Titans win, but take the Falcons and the points.
Miami Dolphins
Houston Texans -6
Dolphins are looking awful and the Texans suffered an upset last week. Take the Texans and give the points this week.
Seattle Seahawks +6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
I have Pittsburgh winning this match up, but the Seahawks will stay within a field goal. Take the Seahawks and the points.
Cleveland Browns +17
New England Patriots
If one things for sure, the Patriots have been consistent for four weeks now and that would lead me to want to give the points, but one things for sure, nothing can stay consistent in the NFL. Call it a feeling, Browns cover…barely.
Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams +3.5
I truly feel that this is an upset pick because of the Rams injuries, but for the line to be this close, one has to wonder if I’m not the only one feeling an upset brewing. Rams cover.
New York Jets
New York Giants -4
The Jets travel to their home stadium this week…that’s just wrong. I pick the home team. No the other home team. Take the Giants give the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10
Indianapolis Colts
Some nicks and scraps on the Colts side will allow the Buccaneers to hang in there. Many think this could be an upset. Not me, but I’ll take the points.
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos (Pick)
As if this division rivalry isn’t heated enough, the line just had to be even as well. No wash on this match up, I’ve got the Broncos in the straight out win.
Baltimore Ravens -3.5
San Francisco 49ers
I had this game down to a field goal, but I think the absence of Alex Smith is enough to give the points.
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers -3.5
I’m sticking with the Pack Attack this week so give the points.
Monday, October 8, 2007 Monday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys -11
Buffalo Bills
I know this goes against what I said about the New England game, but we’re talking about the Bills here. I don’t see them covering this spread and an upset win would give me a heart attack. Take the Cowboys give the points.
-Silver Dragon
:redhot: Silver Dragon Says:redhot:
"I reject your reality and substitute my own" -Adam Savage (Originally from The Dungeonmaster)
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Old 10-06-2007, 08:14 AM   #3
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Great write-up!:thumbsup2:

I'm leaning heavily on NO, Atl, & Seattle.....

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Old 10-06-2007, 10:10 AM   #4
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I'm really impressed with Tampa Bay's defense. Is it good enough to stop Peyton Manning? Probably not but u never know till game time.
Keith "baseball nut" Thronson
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