It seems like quite a few fans and media members are already writing off the 2006 Boston Red Sox.
I constantly keep hearing people say that they are a third-place team. Heck, I even heard one member of the Boston media say on sports radio's WEEI that they would win 74 games this year.
And while the Red Sox probably will open this season with more questions marks than they have had in years, it is a bit absurd to be making all of these doom and gloom predictions. The Red Sox have the potential to be very good, possibly even great this year.
Boston's lineup may not be as relentless as it was from 2003-2005, but they will still score a ton of runs. If Manny Ramirez returns — which appears more and more likely each — he and David Ortiz will combine for a 1-2 punch that can match any duo in baseball. These two last year totaled for 92 home runs while slugging .599. Jason Varitek can also hit, as he is coming off a season in which he hammered 22 home runs while posting an .856 OPS.
The rest of Boston's lineup features quite a few guys who can get on base. Newly-acquired second baseman Mark Loretta has had an on-base percentage of .372, .391, and .360 the last three years. First baseman Kevin Youkilis, in a small sample size, has gotten on-base at a .376 clip in his career. Right fielder Trot Nixon has a career OBP of .366. The wildcard here is newcomer Mike Lowell, who after five seasons of being an above-average hitter, had a horrific year last year. If he can bounce back, it will give the Red Sox a very productive bat at third base.
A lot has been made about the loss of Johnny Damon in center field. While the Red Sox may not be able to replace Damon's production, it's probably not as big of a loss as people think. Damon hit 10 home runs last year and got on base at a .366 clip — sold numbers, yes — but it's not as if this guy is putting up Albert Pujols-like production.
Edgar Renteria is no longer with Boston, which means they will not have to shell out $10 million a season to watch him make 30 errors while posting a .335 OBP.
On the pitching front, Boston has the potential to be much better. Their bullpen last year pitched 426 innings while posting a 5.15 ERA, which was worst in the league. Bullpens are very unpredictable, yes, but it's probably a safe bet to say that they will not be as bad this year.
Closer Keith Foulke was horrible in 2005, but if he is healthy, there is little reason to think he will not bounce back. Prior to last year, Foulke had eight seasons in a row in which he was an above-average reliever. With Mike Timlin, along with the additions of Guillermo Mota, Rudy Seanez, and Julian Tavarez, the Red Sox potentially have a very deep bullpen. At the very least it will likely be better than it was last year.
Curt Schilling is no lock to bounce back to his 2004 form, but I highly doubt many people expect another season of 93.3 innings of 5.69 ERA baseball. Newly-acquired Josh Beckett has yet to throw 200 innings, but six of the nine times he has landed on the DL were due to blister problems. If he can stay relatively healthy he is one of the best young pitchers in the game. Assuming none of the following get traded, the Red Sox still have Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield, David Wells, and Bronson Arroyo, all quality arms.
Those people writing off the Red Sox seem to forget that this team won 95 games last year, despite little production from Schilling and Foulke. If a few things go right for them this year, there is little reason to think they will not be championship contenders once again.
January 18, 2006
Jim fallon:
I like Eric’s optimism but we are not nearly the team we’ve had the last 5 years. Manny is a question mark and he makes Ortiz a better hitter. They both had a lot of rbi’s because Damon got on base so often. Our pitching is very average at best. Most teams improved while the red sox only got worse. We have the worst front office in baseball. With that and a lot more we are not going to end up in 3rd place, we are going to be fighting for a 4th place finish in the east. Let’s call it like it is. The way it stands now this red sox team will play under .500 ball in ‘06
January 18, 2006
Eric Maus:
Jim, thanks for reading.
Do me a favor though - take a deep breath and relax.
The Yankees may be better than the Sox right now in the AL East, but that may be it. I am not sure Toronto has improved nearly as much as people think. Let us not forget that they won just 80 games last year.
Under .500 ball this year? You honestly think the Red Sox are an 80-win team? Fourth place? Who is better? Baltimore? Tampa Bay?
I don’t think so.
January 18, 2006
jdietz:
Jim not only needs to take a breath. He needs some antidepressants.
Pitching and defense win. And both have improved on the Sox this winter. Even if Manny and Wells leave, we’re going to get a lot more than a bag of baseballs for them.
The Sox as composed may not win 95 again because of an improved division, and it may be tough for the second place team to win the wild card, but they’ll still be strong and may even hold their own against the Yankees.
Nobody gave the White Sox a chance last year either. Cheer up.
January 18, 2006
Eric Maus:
I think far too many people are over-reacting about the loss of Damon. He is a good player, but not an elite one ala Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols where you just think “We can no way win after losing this guy.”
Even then teams have lost players much better than Damon and done just fine — the A’s lost Jason Giambi and won over 100 games the next year.
January 18, 2006
Rj Marks:
No team.had evercome back from 0-3, much less against vaunted Yanks. Stranger things have happened. I keep the BoSox Nation faith.
As I tell my Yankee fan friend, only time will tell. I look forward to an exciting 2006 season.
January 18, 2006
DConn:
lets not forget that the season has not yey started and the red sox will still fill the posisions that they need.
I think they will trade for Lugo and Crisp wich will give them an above average leadoff man and a defencive shortstop.but if nothing happens there are great free agents available next year and the red sox will land ANDREW JONES.
January 19, 2006
Jeff:
DConn, news for you, the Red Sox will NOT land Andruw Jones. Now, I’m not saying that this year won’t be another year of the Sox, but I highly doubt it. I feel like they will be in a fight for the wild card as opposed to the division and as soon as they can realize that they’ll be able to focus on that more.
Given I don’t have anything to back it up except that your argument has some holes. You use a lot of “ifs” and hypotheticals to say that the Red Sox could have a good season. It could go that way for every team. IF Randy Johnson pitches like he did a couple years ago and the same with Pavano and Wright, and IF Wang and Small pitch the same as they did last year and IF Giambi and company come back crushing the ball again then there’s no reason to think the Yankees won’t run away with the league this season.
IF Kerry Wood and Mark Prior can stay healthy and Zambrano, Dempster, and Maddux pitch like they should and IF Derrek Lee has another career year and the rest of the hitters get better around him then another curse will be broken this year.
I’m an avid Yankees fan, but I’m not saying the Red Sox are going to flop. It’s just that the “Nation” is basing this season on a lot of hopes and we need to just see how the players play out the first month or two before we start making plans for October or we rip our hair out in disappointment (directed toward the rest of the comments)