Five Quick Hits
* You can't take Jimmy Johnson seriously. He sits in the FOX studio ranting about "so-called experts," apparently oblivious to the fact that he is one of them.
* Atlanta nickel back Brian Williams missed Saturday's game, and his replacement, Chris Owens, just got killed. The Falcons lost by a ton, so that wasn't the difference in the game, but avoiding or overcoming injuries is crucial to success at this point in the season.
* St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, who this season oversaw the 26th-ranked offense in the league, is the new coach of the Cleveland Browns. It worked for Green Bay. Mike McCarthy ran the 32-ranked offense in San Francisco before taking the helm for the Packers.
* At this point, who should we consider the best postseason QB of this generation, Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger? I lean towards Brady, but I don't think the answer to this question is obvious.
* The answer, very soon, might be "neither." Aaron Rodgers' postseason career is off to the most phenomenal start in history, albeit through only three games. His passer rating is 129.4, which doesn't even count 2 rushing TDs.
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Divisional round analysis below, conference championship game predictions below that.
Divisional Roundups
Steelers 31, Ravens 24
A tale of two halves. In the first half, Pittsburgh lost two fumbles, committed six penalties, and ran out of challenges before the end of the first quarter. Most bafflingly, following a fumble by Ben Roethlisberger, offensive lineman Ramon Foster jogged up to the ball sitting on the ground, looked at it for a second, and then turned around. Foster wasn't the only player to assume the fumble had been an incomplete pass, but why not take one more step and lean down to pick the ball up? Instead, as soon as Foster turned his back, Baltimore's Cory Redding scooped up the ball and trotted into the end zone hassle-free, making it 14-7 Baltimore.
The Steelers made mistakes in the first two quarters, but in the second half, the Ravens couldn't do anything right. In the third quarter, they had more turnovers (3) than yards (-4). For the second half as a whole, Baltimore had 28 yards of offense and 22 penalty yards against. Up 21-7 at halftime, the Ravens repeatedly made surprising mistakes that cost them chances to win.
Ray Rice, who didn't fumble all season, lost a fumble on the Ravens' opening series of the third quarter, leading to a Pittsburgh TD. Joe Flacco ran out of bounds for an 8-yard loss instead of throwing the ball away. Lardarius Webb's punt return touchdown was nullified by a questionable holding penalty on Marcus Smith. Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh both dropped touchdown passes. You can't give away that many plays against a good team and expect to win.
In addition to the Ravens' unforced errors, the Steeler defense made plenty of big plays. James Harrison had three sacks and batted down two passes. Brett Keisel generated pressure on Flacco and recovered a fumble. And if Troy Polamalu had the game Ryan Clark did, it would have made headlines. Clark finished with a forced fumble, an interception, another pass deflection, and two tackles for a loss. On Baltimore's side, Terrell Suggs made a valiant effort, with 3 sacks and a forced fumble.
Packers 48, Falcons 21
Over the last three seasons, the Falcons went 20-4 at home. The last time they lost a home game by more than 27 points was Week 17 of 2005. The last time they allowed 48 points was Week 7 of 2004. The Packers, who have won 12 NFL championships, had never scored 48 in a postseason game.
The Falcons were totally outmatched in this contest. Green Bay made the same sort of mistakes Baltimore did — a bad fumble, a kickoff returned for a touchdown — and all it did was make the score respectable. Atlanta didn't put a real drive together until the fourth quarter, when the Packers already had the game in hand. The Packers didn't punt all game.
Aaron Rodgers once again played at a phenomenal level. It's time for people to stop trying to sound like they're complimenting Rodgers by saying things like, "He's right behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady." He's not behind anybody. Saying he is makes your comment an insult, not a compliment. Aaron Rodgers is as good a quarterback as there is in the league right now. He also has very fine receivers and a good offensive line, but don't forget about this defense, which held Michael Turner to 39 yards and Matt Ryan to a 69.0 passer rating — at home. Ryan was also sacked 5 times, a career-high.
Atlanta's defense ranked fifth this season in points allowed, just 18 per game, with a season high of 32. Green Bay topped that by 50% and almost tripled the average. The way the Packers played on Saturday, it's hard to imagine anyone beating them.
Bears 35, Seahawks 24
The Seahawks are who we thought they were. The score looks respectable, but the stats were lopsided in Chicago's favor, reflecting that most of Seattle's production came in garbage time — this game was 21-0 at halftime and 28-3 to open the fourth quarter. The Seahawks couldn't get anything meaningful going offensively, they forgot to cover Greg Olsen, and they couldn't consistently contain Jay Cutler or Matt Forte. My favorite stat from the game: three Bears (Forte, Chester Taylor, and Cutler) each out-rushed the entire Seahawk team, which combined for just 34 yards. Marshawn Lynch, the hero of last week's game, carried 4 times for 2 yards.
Bizarre quotes leading up to the game: Troy Aikman said on Saturday, "Matt Hasselbeck, when he's on, he's as good as anybody." That's obviously not right. On Sunday, Curt Menefee said of the Chicago/Seattle contest, "Brian Urlacher tries to cement his legacy among the best linebackers in Chicago Bears history." Uh, I think he might have done that already, Curt. He could retire today and probably make the Hall of Fame.
Jets 28, Patriots 21
Okay, this is the upset of the playoffs. Say what you will about Saints/Seahawks, New Orleans had some obvious vulnerabilities, major injury issues, and a tough road trip on a short week. The Pats were undefeated at home, blowing everyone away, including a 45-3 beatdown of the Jets just over a month ago.
Both top seeds, the Patriots and the Falcons, lost this weekend. The same thing happened two years ago, to the Titans and Giants, but before that you have to go back more than a decade, to 1997. The NFL moved to a 12-team playoff (six per conference) in 1990, and from '90 to '01, the top seeds went 19-5 (.792) in their first games. Since the Houston Texans joined the league in 2002 and the NFL moved to a four-division format, top seeds are just 10-7 (.588) in that first game.
Sixth seeds — like the Jets and Packers — from 1990-2001 went 7-23 in the postseason (.233). Since realignment, they're 17-15 (.531), with a 10-8 record in the first round. Neither home-field advantage nor a first-round bye is worth as much as it used to be. I don't know why, but it's clearly true.
The Jets did the same thing to Tom Brady that they did to Peyton Manning last week, dropping into coverage and mostly using a 3- or 4-man pass rush. The coverage was airtight, and Brady got visibly frustrated, though he also didn't look himself, holding onto the ball, trying too hard to make a play, and taking a lot of sacks. Of course, it didn't help that Shaun Ellis overwhelmed New England guard Dan Connolly, just destroyed him. Brady was sacked 5 times and intercepted for the first time since October 17. The Jets intercepted Brady more times this season (3) than the rest of the league combined (2).
The Jets edged ahead of New England in the all-time series, 52-51-1.
Championship Game Forecasts
All four divisional games were regular-season rematches, and so are both conference championship games. The Jets edged the Steelers in Week 15, while the Bears and Packers split the season series. All of the remaining teams are second or sixth seeds.
Packers @ Bears
The Bears are no joke. They have a great defense, and an offense that is very effective when it's clicking the way it did against Seattle. The problem is that whereas the Seahawks had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, Green Bay has the best defense in the NFC. Chicago's offense is nowhere near as good as Atlanta's, and you saw what the Packers did to the Falcons. Also, the Packers won't wilt in snow like Seattle did. Simply, Green Bay's defense is better than Chicago's, and its offense is much, much better than Chicago's.
I hesitate to pick Green Bay, though, for three reasons. One is that the Packers are prone to baffling mistakes, and they lost a lot of close games this season. The second concern relates to injuries. The Packers are pretty beat-up, and if their defensive stars aren't ready to go or Rodgers gets another concussion or something, that changes things in a big way. The final issue is the possibility of overconfidence. The Packers are pretty clearly the better team. They've been playing lights-out, and they beat the Bears in Week 17. Chicago is too good for the Packers to mail it in and still win. They can't spend the next week reading their press clippings and buying into their own hype.
The Bears win this game with big plays: turnovers and special teams. I'd say they need at least two turnovers and probably a big return, even if it doesn't get all the way to the end zone. They've got to pressure Rodgers and try to force him into mistakes. Don't worry about James Starks, stop the pass. Offensively, keep it balanced, don't get predictable, and don't be afraid to go for the big play. But the Bears could come in with a perfect gameplan and still lose, just because Green Bay is so good. Packers by 7.
Jets @ Steelers
All season, the Jets have won the games they had to have. They've gone through lulls, looked really bad in a couple of games, but they perform when they have to. In 2008, I picked against the Cardinals in every game, until the Super Bowl, when I just threw my hands up and finally picked them to win. I went 0-4 picking Cardinals games that season. I don't want to repeat with the Jets. I said they would lose to Indianapolis and I picked them to lose against the Patriots. I'm off to a bad start. I am 4-2 in the other games.
But I'm not betting against the Steelers. They're at home, they match up well with the Jets, and they're battle-tested, with their eyes on the prize. The Patriots, as good as they were this year, were a relatively young and inexperienced team, and I think some combination of the pressure and the psych games got to them. If you were going to design a team to beat the Jets, it would be Pittsburgh, maybe with a slightly more consistent rushing game.
With defenses this good, you don't expect a lot of scoring, and turnovers will probably decide the outcome. I think Pittsburgh controls the pace by running the ball, and somewhere along the line Ben Roethlisberger pulls a big play out of nowhere. The Jets won't be able to run on the Steelers, and Mark Sanchez will face the kind of pressure New England wasn't able to generate. The Jets are not to be taken lightly, but I say the Steelers win by 4.
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