|11-21-2013, 04:36 AM||#1|
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: San Francisco, CA
Anthony's Week 12 NFL Pointspread Picks
Last week: 10-4-1. Season totals: 81-75-6, Pct. .519. Best Bets: 16-15-2, Pct. .515.
Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.
New Orleans 31, ATLANTA 13 (+7) - True, the Saints are just 2-2 straight up and 1-3 against the line on the road in 2013 - but all four of those games were outdoors, and quite frankly, the Falcons have to convince me that they are actually giving out an honest effort at this point. The Saints have also won eight of their last ten over Atlanta, including wins and covers in five of the last six.
BALTIMORE 27, N.Y. Jets 16 (+3) - Yes, I know the Jets haven't had a multi-game streak either way all season and they lost last week, but they've dropped seven straight to the Ravens and are 1-8 against the line in their last nine vs. The Modell Franchise - and now there's "Trouble In Paradise," consisting of Geno Smith being on the business end of a potential benching.
MIAMI 20 (+4), Carolina 17 - The Dolphins are doing a shockingly good job dealing with the "Bullygate" distractions, and the Panthers have never won or covered against Miami (0-4) - and if you missed Carolina's zebra-aided wedding on Monday night, you might want to miss this Sunday's funeral.
Pittsburgh 14 (+2 1/2), CLEVELAND 10 - If it seems like it's been a long time since the Steelers have been underdogs to the Browns, maybe that's because it has been - a full decade in fact. But Cleveland's get-up-and-go that seemed to paradoxically accompany the Trent Richardson trade appears to have gotten up and gone.
DETROIT 23, Tampa Bay 17 (+9 1/2) - Both of Mike Glennon's road losses have been one-score affairs and the Lions could be looking ahead to the game that is very likely to decide their fate in the NFC North in just four days (at home, against the Packers, on Thanksgiving Day), so the points are definitely worth taking in this spot, particularly with the home team in this series on a three-game losing streak both ways.
GREEN BAY 20, Minnesota 13 (+5) - At least two more games with "The Hobbit" - Scott Tolzien - at quarterback for the Packers (presumably if Aaron Rodgers couldn't make it back for this game, four more days isn't going to make enough difference), but warm-weather and indoor teams are 1-4 against the spread in weather-intensive games so far this year and these teams' form tends to get worse as the cold-weather season wears on - and it's not as if Green Bay is conceding that much of a disadvantage at the quarterback position, if Josh Freeman isn't ready to assume the mantle yet for the Vikings, who are 16-27-3 against the line in "Triple Witching Hour" games since moving their home digs indoors in 1982.
Chicago 14 (+1), ST. LOUIS 7 - Like Rodgers, Jay Cutler won't be back this week, but it is Kellen Clemens that Josh McCown will be matching up with here and the Bears, who probably shouldn't be underdogs in this one, have covered in five of their last six against the Rams.
HOUSTON 16, Jacksonville 10 (+10 1/2) - Is Case Keenum Gary Kubiak's long-lost nephew or something? Keenum has done absolutely nothing that warrants him retaining Houston's starting quarterback job now that Matt Schaub is healthy again (and not for nothing, but what about T.J. Yates, who minded the store so effectively two years ago that he came under serious consideration for various rookie-of-the-year honors?), and the Jags already have an outright win as a double-digit road underdog to one AFC South rival with a backup QB, so there's no reason not to pick them to at least cover.
KANSAS CITY 28, San Diego 14 (+5) - The second of four games this week in which cold weather is an issue (and while the Chargers are one of the "better" teams at handling that, they're still 17-24 straight up and 17-21-3 against the line therein dating back to 1996), and no way should this line be anything less than double digits (who cares what these teams did in previous seasons, with over half of this one already in the books?). Easy win and cover for the Chiefs.
OAKLAND 30, Tennessee 23 (+1 1/2) - There is a certain sloppy genius to this year's Raiders, and the Titans have dropped three straight at Oakland by a combined 49 points. Could "Sugar" Rashad Jennings (150 rushing yards at Houston last week including an 80-yard TD that essentially sealed Oakland's win) be so sweet that the ever-injured Darren McFadden will go the way of the likewise oft-banged-up Darius Heyward-Bey?
Indianapolis 33 (+2), ARIZONA 17 - Even if Indianapolis hadn't won four in a row over the Cards and the home team hadn't been 1-7-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings, the Colts would have been a standout selection since no way should they be underdogs given the huge class edge they hold. And with those trends in their favor?
N.Y. GIANTS 27, Dallas 21 (+3) - The Cowboys are 17-6-1 against the spread in the modern era coming off a bye (only Denver's 19-6 is better in the entire NFL), but they have actually lost their last three post-bye games straight up, and Dallas is 15-30 outright and 16-27-2 pointwise in cold weather since 1995 - and this one's in the late time slot, making the task at hand even harder. The Giants can't possibly make the playoffs after starting 0-6 when not even a single 0-5 starter has ever done so, can they?
NEW ENGLAND 38 (+3), Denver 24 - In case you're interested, Tom Brady has not been a home underdog since November 7, 2005 (!), but his lifetime record therein is 4-2 straight up and 5-1 against the line. He also has respective career marks of 9-5 and 8-4-2 against Peyton Manning - and the Pats have won and covered three in a row by a combined 117-54 over Denver, which is 7-14 against the line since 2007 as a visitor on the carpet. Add in the "Sandwich Factor" - Broncos played the Chiefs last week, and do so again next week - and this becomes pretty much an open-and-shut case.
San Francisco 21, WASHINGTON 20 (+4) - "Trouble in Paradise" in the nation's capital too - RG3 and the Shanahans don't seem to be getting along - but cold weather has been anything but heaven to the 49ers for a long time, as in 5-15 straight up and 6-12-2 against the line going all the way back to 1998 - and remember that this is a night game, shaving several more degrees off the kickoff-time temperature. Finally, the 49ers are 32nd in the league in passing offense - that's last, for those of you in Rio Linda, West Palm Beach and Staten Island - raising the very real question of whether Colin Kaepernick is a half-year flash in the pan. In any event, take the points.
BEST BETS: KANSAS CITY, INDIANAPOLIS, NEW ENGLAND
One of our political parties doesn't know the difference between non-sectarianism and secularism, while the other doesn't know the difference between individualism and selfishness. And you have to ask why there are so many independents?
Last edited by Anthony; 11-21-2013 at 12:08 PM.
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