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Old 09-19-2018, 10:14 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 3 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 6-10. Season totals: 14-17-1, Pct. .453. Best Bets: 2-4, Pct. .333.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

N.Y. Jets
16 (+3), CLEVELAND 12 - The Jets have beaten Cleveland five in a row, covering in four, and the Browns haven't won or covered as a favorite since September 20, 2015 (0-4). And it could very well come down to the kicking game, where Jason Myers is 4-for-4 including a 55-yarder last week, while Cleveland's Zane Gonzalez was cut after missing two sub-40-yard field goal attempts and two extra points and has been replaced by the totally unproven Greg Joseph. Look for Myers to go 3-for-3 on field goals and for Joseph to miss any attempted field goals and both of his extra points (or maybe miss one PAT and then the Browns go for two and miss that) and for the Jets to get the W.


SUNDAY

HOUSTON 23, N.Y. Giants 20 (+6) - Deshaun Watson played better last week than he did in the opener (22 of 32 for 310 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INTs, 107.6 passer rating), but the Texans still lost to the Marcus Mariota-less Titans, and they're 1-3 lifetime against the Giants, including getting outscored 64-27 in the last two - and the Giants are presumably staying in Texas for this game after their loss at Jerry World Sunday night, giving them another edge here. Take the points.

Indianapolis 31 (+6 1/2), PHILADELPHIA 16 - Yes, Carson Wentz is back - but without a receiver with any speed whatsoever to throw to (Mike Wallace, fractured fibula, likely out for the season), it will be open season on him courtesy of the blitz. And a loaf of bread and a gallon of gas cost 71 cents and $1.27 respectively, and the number-one song on the Billboard singles chart was Stevie Wonder's "I Just Called To Say I Love You," the last time the Eagles covered the spread against the Colts at home - on October 14, 1984. And if Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose record as a starter "improved" to 50-70-1 last week, could throw for 402 yards and a 144.4 passer rating against Philadelphia's sprinkling-can secondary, then imagine what Andrew Luck will do - and T.Y. Hilton is essentially a DeSean Jackson clone. Indy outright and easily in the best bet of the week.

Green Bay 27, WASHINGTON 20 (+3) - Apparently The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name is needy at wide receiver too, signing Michael Floyd and Breshad Perriman, the latter having been passed over by the Eagles in favor of the much slower Kamar Aiken. And since 2012 Green Bay is 14-9 straight up and 13-10 against the line as a visitor on the grass, compared with 11-18 and 10-19 respectively on the carpet over the same period.

Cincinnati 34 (+3), CAROLINA 23 - One more week and they will award this score to the Bengals permanently.

JACKSONVILLE 20, Tennessee 10 (+6 1/2) - The three Florida teams (Jags, Dolphins, Bucs) are 5-1 both ways at home in September this season and last combined, including 3-0 this year, and I suppose the Vegas sports books will be doing the "Mariota Dance" all week (he ended up not playing last week against Houston, but the Titans won anyway). The spread is an "offshore" line from an online sportsbook based in the Caribbean.

MIAMI 27, Oakland 14 (+3) - Another vote for Florida at home in September - and before losing by three as a 2 1/2-point underdog to Oakland last year, the Dolphins had won the previous four against the Raiders by a combined 140-58. Has Jon Gruden been away from the game too long?

ATLANTA 34, New Orleans 27 (+3 1/2) - Only a late missed field goal enabled the Saints to evade digging themselves a hole that only one team in NFL history has ever dug itself out of in a non-strike year. But the water gets a lot deeper for them this week, and the Falcons should cover despite being on the business end of one of the two "pressure points" (3 1/2-point favorite or 2 1/2-point underdog).

BALTIMORE 23, Denver 13 (+4 1/2) - Dating all the way back to 1994 when the Ravens were still the Cleveland Browns Version 1.0, the home team in this series is 11-3 straight up and 10-4 against the spread. The speedy John Brown, who came over from Arizona in free agency, is helping Joe Flacco hold off rookie Lamar Jackson for the starting quarterback job in Baltimore.

MINNESOTA 38, Buffalo 10 (+16) - Vontae Davis retired at halftime of last week's game, with the Bills behind 28-6 and still having not scored a touchdown in 2018 after getting varnished 47-3 by the Ravens in their opener. If the Vikings want to use this game to "send a message" (as Penn State has, beating Pitt and Kent State by a combined 114-16 in their last two games) so to speak, they can win by a lot more than this.

KANSAS CITY 35, San Francisco 14 (+5 1/2) - But a message has already been sent in this matchup: Don't even bother to show up if you're the road team, which has lost a staggering nine consecutive times, with the 49ers not having won or covered in Kansas City since 1972, getting outscored 140-46 in four visits. Best bet.

Chicago 20, ARIZONA 3 (+5 1/2) - Since 2007, teams getting shut out are 18-32 straight up and 21-28-1 against the spread in their next game, and the home team in this one has dropped the last four - and if your mind is sick and twisted enough, you will thoroughly enjoy what Khalil Mack is likely to do to Sam Bradford.

Dallas 28, SEATTLE 23 (+1) - The Dallas offense is slowly finding its stride, and Tavon Austin should be good for at least one big play against the Legion of Gloom.

L.A. RAMS 30, L.A. Chargers 10 (+7) - The Rams have outscored their first two opponents 67-13 - and the home team in this series has won seven in a row, covering in five. Just as well that very few markets will be forced to sit through this mismatch as this is the lone late-time-slot game on CBS and Fox has the doubleheader privileges this week.

New England 31, DETROIT 14 (+7) - The Patriots have beaten the Lions four in a row (3-1 against the spread) and are 20-6 straight up and 17-7-2 against the spread inside NFL domes since 2001, the year that Bill Belichick won the first of his five Super Bowl rings.


MONDAY NIGHT

TAMPA BAY
30 (+2), Pittsburgh 27 - Win number three for the Florida teams at home in September - and the Rooneys have only themselves to blame for the dumpster fire that they themselves have created. Being cheap never pays off.


BEST BETS: INDIANAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY, L.A. RAMS
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