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Old 12-10-2015, 11:08 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 14 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 7-9. Season totals: 83-104-5, Pct. .445. Best Bets: 13-24-2, Pct. .359.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

ARIZONA
31, Minnesota 16 (+7) - The nighttime most emphatically does not flatter the Vikings, who are 2-12 both ways and outscored 422-213 working the night shift since 2010. Minnesota is also 1-9 straight up against over-.500 teams under Mike Zimmer, who is 14-4 against non-winning opposition. And how are the Cardinals doing it, you wonder? Well in addition to keeping Carson Palmer healthy, they have far and away the most productive receivers in the league: Their 13.8 yards per completion is more than a half yard higher than that of the second-ranked team in this department (Pittsburgh). So ignore the seeming overlay and give it.


SUNDAY

N.Y. JETS
24, Tennessee 14 (+7) - Imagine where the Jets would be if they only had a quarterback - and here they face their photo-negative: A team that does have a quarterback, but precious little else, and one that hasn't beaten the Jets on the road since neither their home town nor their name was the same, in 1991. The last three meetings, and six of the last seven, have been at Tennessee.

PHILADELPHIA 30, Buffalo 23 (+1) - As sample sizes go for trends, they don't come much larger than 100 games - and the Bills have played exactly that number of games on natural grass dating back to 1995, and have won 34 of them, with a 43-55-2 spread record therein. LeSean McCoy may get his yards against Chip Kelly but his team won't get the W - something the Eagles have gotten in seven of their last eight against AFC teams, the lone loss a one-pointer.

CAROLINA 45, Atlanta 10 (+7) - Matt Ryan looks like he has worn out his welcome in Atlanta, and likely can be had for a reasonable price in a trade next spring. And the Falcons, who have now non-covered eight in a row, are impossible to endorse, especially outdoors and on grass.

TAMPA BAY 27, New Orleans 17 (+4 1/2) - Last week's near-miss against the unbeaten Panthers was probably the last honest effort you will see out of the Saints this season, and in Sean Payton's tenure with them. Jameis Winston making a strong case for Rookie of the Year honors.

CLEVELAND 20, San Francisco 13 (P) - The 49ers are one of three warm-weather/domed-stadium teams who have to play a second consecutive cold-weather game this week. That's asking a lot - and Johnny Manziel is back. This will leave every team with at least three wins, and keep the race for the top pick in the 2016 draft wide open, in a year with no obvious favorite to be taken with that selection.

CINCINNATI 31, Pittsburgh 17 (+3) - Where the Thursday night game might be an overlay, this line is definitely an underlay: With a three-game lead on the Steelers, the Bengals should be favored by a touchdown at home, not a field goal. So I'm all over the Bengals, who clinch the AFC North with a victory, at this number.

Washington 14 (+3 1/2), CHICAGO 10 - I've seen this thousands and thousands of times: A team that "can't lose at home" and "can't win on the road" finally does first one, then the following week turns right around and does the other - and The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name is 6-1 straight up and 7-0 against the spread in their last seven in Chicago, and at 1-5 at home and 4-2 on the road, the Bears are the worst per-capita home team in the NFL.

Detroit 24 (+1 1/2), ST. LOUIS 21 - Blowing a 20-0 lead, as the Lions did last Thursday night, is better than quitting, which the Rams started doing several weeks ago. Looks like the Nick Foles for Sam Bradford trade didn't work out for either team, so both should be major players in what figures to be an unusually busy off-season veteran quarterback market. Even the same angle mentioned in the Jets game - the last three meetings and six of the last seven have been at Detroit - probably can't save St. Louis in this spot.

KANSAS CITY 17, San Diego 13 (+10) - The Chiefs are playoff bound and solid in most areas, but lack the firepower to cover big spreads. Take the points.

DENVER 34, Oakland 14 (+8) - The Broncos haven't missed a beat with the intriguing Brock Osweiler, and have won and covered in their last eight versus the Raiders, outscoring them 276-119, and Oakland is 1-8 straight up and 3-6 against the line in its last nine, and 10-31 and 17-22-2 respectively since 1996, as a visitor in cold weather.

GREEN BAY 28, Dallas 10 (+7 1/2) - The Packers will have four days more preparation time, and it's back-to-back cold-weather games for the Cowboys, whose only win ever at Lambeau came on September 21st (in 2008). Dallas is 1-8 straight up and 2-7 against the spread lifetime on the tundra, and was outscored 267-109 in the eight losses.

HOUSTON 27 (+3), New England 23 - Just three weeks ago the Patriots were in line to redux their own 2007 team that went 16-0. Now they are in line to redux the 1986 Jets, who started 10-1 only to lose their last five and back in to the playoffs. Still no sign of Rob Gronkowski, and the road team in this series has never covered the spread (0-5-1).


MONDAY NIGHT

N.Y. Giants
23 (P), MIAMI 20 - Tom Coughlin may have two Super Bowl rings but right now his bad decisions are killing the Giants. Even so, they have yet to lose to Miami outside of New York/Jersey in franchise history (3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread, with the lone non-cover coming in London, not Miami) and despite the identical 5-7 records, the Giants have a lot more to play for.


BEST BETS: CAROLINA, CINCINNATI, DENVER


Note:
At the time of this writing, no line was available on two games - Indianapolis at Jacksonville due to the possible return of Colts QB Andrew Luck, and Seattle at Baltimore due to multiple injuries to the Ravens. Therefore, no picks could be made on these games.
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Last edited by Anthony; 12-10-2015 at 02:48 PM.
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