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Old 12-17-2014, 05:56 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 16 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 10-6. Season totals: 108-113-3, Pct. .489. Best Bets: 24-21, Pct. .533.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

JACKSONVILLE
17, Tennessee 10 (+3) - Question: What is Jacksonville's record against the spread as a favorite over the past three seasons? The correct answer is 0-0! This is the first time since their 2011 season finale hosting the post-Peyton Manning, pre-Andrew Luck Colts that the Jags have opened as favorites, breaking a 46-game drought - and look for them to make the most of the opportunity against Charlie Whitehurst, one of several third-string, or even lower, quarterbacks who will be starting this week.


SATURDAY

Philadelphia 21, WASHINGTON 17 (+8) - It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the Eagles throw themselves a pity party and finish 9-7, which would kill any hope of the owners expanding the playoff field at next spring's meetings - and not for nothing, but could you imagine the satisfaction that DeSean Jackson would derive from personally eliminating Chip Kelly from playoff contention? Take the points - at least.

San Diego 28 (+2 1/2), SAN FRANCISCO 10 - And it would utterly shock me if the 49ers do not throw themselves a pity party and finish 7-9 - and how can they possibly be favored over a team that is not only still very much in the playoff hunt, but one that has beaten them three times in a row, including blasting them 82-26 in the last two? The Chargers are the best bet of the week.


SUNDAY

New England
42, N.Y. JETS 14 (+10) - Now that Rex Ryan has ruined the Jets' draft plans on his way out the door, and has taken a gleeful delight in it, they can go back to losing again - and with the home team in this series having covered in only one of the last eight, they figure to lose big as the Pats close in on home field throughout the AFC playoffs.

N.Y. Giants 20 (+4 1/2), ST. LOUIS 10 - The Giants have won five in a row over the Rams, the last four by a combined 136-66, and have covered in their last six versus St. Louis. They're also 16-9 straight up and 17-8 against the line inside NFL domes since 2002. And Eli Manning getting four and a half from Shaun Hill?

Green Bay 23, TAMPA BAY 14 (+10 1/2) - The Packers are simply a different team on the road, where they're 3-4 straight up and 1-6 against the spread this year, and looking ahead to next week's rematch against the Lions at Lambeau (the Week 17 Sunday nighter?) in which the NFC North title will be on the line unless Green Bay loses outright here (but not for nothing, they have lost seven of their last eight in Tampa!) is enough of a possibility not to want to lay this number.

MIAMI 20, Minnesota 17 (+7) - True, the Vikings haven't won or covered in Miami since 1976 and the home team is 6-1 straight up and 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings, but you have to admire the sheer spunk that Minnesota has been showing for most of the season so I'm willing to take the points in this spot.

PITTSBURGH 30, Kansas City 21 (+3 1/2) - To scarcely a ripple of notice, the Steelers are carving out a pretty nice season for themselves, and the Chiefs haven't won in Pittsburgh since 1986 and have still yet to get a TD catch from a wide receiver this year, so it's kind of hard to take them seriously.

CAROLINA 16, Cleveland 6 (+3 1/2) - I know it's only one game, but Johnny Manziel's performance in his initial NFL start raises major red flags - and while there is no official word on Cam Newton's availability at this writing, Tony Romo only missed one game after sustaining essentially the identical injury, and this line is veritably screaming that Newton will play.

Detroit 13, CHICAGO 10 (+6 1/2) - The Lions looked mighty shaky last week against Minnesota, and Detroit is 1-22 straight up since 2001 as a visitor in cold weather, and could be looking ahead to next week's "NFC North Championship Game" in Green Bay, which will be that unless the Packers somehow lose to Tampa Bay. Take the points - and if the Eagles do lose on Saturday, the Bears become an even more attractive take, since in that case this game becomes completely meaningless for Detroit.

NEW ORLEANS 28, Atlanta 24 (+6) - After going 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread in their first seven games, the home team is 0-7 both ways in the seven New Orleans games since - and while the Saints are 13-4 straight up against Atlanta since 2006, they are only 8-9 versus the points. Taking again.

Baltimore 17, HOUSTON 0 (+3 1/2) - But not here: The Texans are literally down to either their #4 quarterback, Thad Lewis, or even #5 man Case Keenum, who returns to Houston after he was signed off the Rams' practice squad Monday. Plus the Ravens have owned the series, with records of 7-1 outright and 5-2-1 pointwise.

DALLAS 35, Indianapolis 13 (+3) - Do you honestly believe that the Patriots are going to lose to both the Jets on the road this week and to Buffalo at home next week, or that the Broncos are going to lose to Oakland at home in the season finale - which would be necessary to give the Colts any shot at a first-round bye? Chances are, Chuck Pagano doesn't either - and Andrew Luck, who may see only token action as a result along with many other Indy starters, is 2-10 lifetime against over-.500 teams on the road, and the Colts are one point away (a 25-24 win in 1996) from not having won in Dallas since 1960. This one won't even be close.

OAKLAND 24 (+5 1/2), Buffalo 17 - And there is no "one point away" involved in the Bills not having won in Oakland since 1966 - and if, unlike present company (!), you missed Buffalo's wedding last week, take my advice and miss the funeral.

Seattle 13, ARIZONA 9 (+7 1/2) - Can't remember the last time an 11-3 team was this heavy a home underdog in their 15th game, and yes, the Cardinals must turn to Ryan Lindley at quarterback. But Arizona is 7-0 at home and Seattle's offense is running on fumes right now so the Seahawks might not be able to cover - especially if, as expected, the roof is closed, as Seattle is 8-17-3 against the spread indoors dating back to 2006.


MONDAY NIGHT

CINCINNATI
31 (+3 1/2), Denver 24 - Any day now, Melissa Harris-Perry will be receiving a Christmas card from her father, in which he will have written, "The struggle continues." Well the struggle continues for the Broncos in this game, in that the game is on artificial turf, upon which Denver is 10-17 straight up and 8-19 against the spread since 2007. Bengals need one win to clinch a playoff spot and two to wrap up a division title - something the Broncos have already done, so the "Necessity over Luxury Theory" is in Cincy's favor as well.


BEST BETS: SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE, DALLAS

Last edited by Anthony; 12-17-2014 at 06:09 AM.
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