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Old 09-24-2014, 06:36 AM   #1
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Cool Anthony's Week 4 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 10-6. Season totals: 21-26-1, Pct. .448. Best Bets: 3-6, Pct. .333.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


N.Y. Giants
20 (+4 1/2), WASHINGTON 17 - When the Giants play smart football as they did last week, good things tend to happen - and good things also seem to happen whenever they play on natural grass (upon which they will do for the first time in 2014 in this game) as their 24-13 outright and 23-13-1 pointwise records on it since 2007 attest. Can't see why Washington is favored at all, let alone by this much, especially without RG3.


17 (+1), Detroit 13 - I have no interest in giving even one point on the Lions outdoors when they are 16-63 straight up in that venue dating all the way back to 2001. Jets have also beaten Detroit three in a row, after having lost the last four in the series prior.

Miami 20, Oakland 6 (+3 1/2) - And the lack of either team's name being capitalized is not a typo, in that this game is at London's Wembley Stadium. Just can't see the overmatched Raiders playing tough two weeks in a row, and they haven't exactly played the Dolphins tough either recently (Oakland has lost the last three meetings by a combined 102-44) or long-term (2-10 straight up and 3-9 against the line in the last dozen).

PITTSBURGH 24, Tampa Bay 3 (+8) - And Tampa Bay's three points may even come the same way as they did the last time they were in town back in 2006, on the last play of the game to evade a shutout. Come to think of it, points have been hard to come by for the Bucs both at Pittsburgh (15 points scored in three games there in franchise history, all losses) and versus Pittsburgh generally, regardless of where the game was played (33 in the last four games against them). Throwing Josh Freeman under the bus - and publicly releasing Freeman's confidential medical records, which included alleged prescriptions for antidepressants, just for bad measure - has proven to be a totally brilliant move for them, now hasn't it? It's just like the Germans say - Jedem Das Seine: They all deserve what they get.

INDIANAPOLIS 35, Tennessee 10 (+7) - Why the continued lack of "hee-spect," as they say in Brazil, for the Colts from the oddsmakers? By all right this line should be well into the double digits - particularly with Tennessee's current streaks of six losses in a row with just two covers at Indy, and one win with three covers against them overall in the last eleven meetings. And so as not to single out the Buccaneers organization, it must be said that the Titans are doin' fine now too, senza Chris Johnson.

BALTIMORE 20, Carolina 14 (+3) - Like the Colts, the Panthers continue to be morbidly undervalued by the Vegas people - and this from someone who said before the season began that they will be a .500 team at best this year. But Carolina is 6-19 straight up and 8-17 against the line since 2008 as a visitor on the carpet, and that's pretty morbid in its own right.

Green Bay 27 (+1), CHICAGO 24 - Willing to forgive the Packers for last week's head-scratcher in Detroit - but if they lose again here, facing a team they have beaten in seven of the last eight and covered in six of the last seven, then it's time to issue the "flop alert" (as CNN has recycled the "terror alert" with the commencement of U.S. airstrikes against ISIS on Tuesday) on Green Bay for 2014.

HOUSTON 17, Buffalo 10 (+4) - The value is terrible on this one, but Buffalo's bubble may have burst last week, and the hot weather forecast for Houston this weekend may close the Reliant Stadium roof and thus make Buffalo's 5-19 straight-up and 7-17 spread records indoors since 1999 an issue.

SAN DIEGO 27, Jacksonville 7 (+13 1/2) - His late garbage-time "heroics" against the Colts last week have "earned" Blake Bortles his debut as an NFL starter - but Gus Bradley might have opted to wait one more week if he knew that the Jags have been blasted 100-33 in their last three against San Diego, and are 0-2 by 72-34 at Navytown.

MINNESOTA 24 (+3), Atlanta 23 - Terry Bridgewater is also expected to make his NFL starting bow this week, in his case due to an injury to Matt Cassel; and Bridgewater just might provide the spark the Vikings so desperately need now that they have voluntarily shelved Adrian Peterson for strictly politically correct reasons - and it cannot possibly be "financially correct" to lay points on the Falcons outdoors (remember that Minnesota is an outdoor site this year, and will be next season as well) when Atlanta has dropped eight in a row outdoors straight up.

SAN FRANCISCO 37, Philadelphia 20 (+3 1/2) - The Eagles have won their last four in San Francisco - but this one is in Santa Clara (similarly note, in reverse, how the Bears had lost eight in a row in San Francisco before winning in Santa Clara two Sunday nights ago), and a comparison between this year's Eagles and those of 2012 could prove to be highly instructive: Where the 2012 Eagles became the first team in NFL history to open a season 2-0 after two one-point wins (and also the first to win three of their first four by a combined margin of as few as four points) only to finish 4-12, the 2014 Eagles are the first NFL team ever to start 3-0 after trailing by 10 points or more in all three games. And right now any good high-school quarterback could throw for 400 yards against Billy Davis' marshmallow-soft, bend-but-don't-break defense, and cornerback Cary Williams' pointed comments about Chip Kelly overworking his players in practice could presage extremely serious trouble ahead - and with the 49ers entering the latter zone for sure with a loss (only one team in NFL history - the '01 Patriots - has ever won a Super Bowl following a 1-3 start), look for an inspired effort, propelling them to a comfortable win.

New Orleans 31, DALLAS 24 (+3) - The Saints needed to stop somebody - anybody - on defense last week, and did; and as in the Jets-Lions series, the proverbial worm can take its time turning: The Saints have won their last four in Dallas (with a 3-0-1 spread record therein) - but before that they had taken an 0-for-9 lifetime collar in Big D, with an average margin of 12 points in those nine defeats.


New England 23, KANSAS CITY 21 (+4) - Come on, admit it: You knew that Fat Boy wasn't going to let the Chiefs panic; and while it is true that the Pats have beaten the Chiefs in five of the last six, they covered in just two of them, and New England has dropped five straight to the spread on grass (with only one outright victory) so take the points.


Last edited by Anthony; 09-24-2014 at 11:28 PM.
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