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Old 12-26-2006, 07:34 AM   #1
Anthony
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Exclamation #1 Draft Pick Alert: DET vs. OAK

With one week to go, only four games separate the Lions and the Raiders in strength of scehdule, with Detroit having played the easier schedule (118 opponents' victories to Oakland's 122), but the gap will narrow to three if both teams lose their respective Week 17 games as the Raiders are playing the Jets, whom the Lions have already played, while the Lions are playing the Cowboys, who did not appear on the Jets' 2006 schedule.

So unless Detroit's strength of schedule "gains" four or more games on Oakland's (already having factored in their respective Week 17 games, as above), the Lions will secure the #1 pick in the 2007 draft (presumptively Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn). This of course assumes that both teams lose their respective games this Sunday; obviously if the Lions lose and the Raiders win the Lions get the top pick, and if the Lions win and the Raiders lose the Raiders get the top pick.

Weeding out the common opponents that the Lions and Raiders have played/will play the same number of times this season (example, Seattle) and the opponents of the same team who are playing each other this coming week (example, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh), the games to watch are the following:

St. Louis at Minnesota: Detroit gains 2 games on Oakland in SOS if Vikings win.
New England at Tennessee: Detroit gains 1 game if Patriots win.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: Detroit gains 1 game if Falcons win.
Miami at Indianapolis: Detroit gains 1 game if Dolphins win.

Jacksonville at Kansas City: Oakland gains 2 games on Detroit in SOS if Chiefs win.
San Francisco at Denver: Oakland gains 2 games if Broncos win.
Arizona at San Diego: Oakland gains 2 games if Chargers win.

Buffalo at Baltimore: Detroit gains 1 game if Bills win, Oakland gains 1 game if Ravens win.

The other eight games are irrelevant.

How to use the above chart: Simply add each team's "gains" based on the results of the aforementioned eight games - and if, at the conclusion of Sunday afternoon's games (neither the Saturday night game, N.Y. Giants at Washington, nor the Sunday night game, Green Bay at Chicago, have any bearing on the matter), Detroit's gains have exceeded Oakland's by 4 or more, the Raiders get the top pick; if Detroit's gains have exceeded Oakland's by 2 or less, or the gains are equal or Oakland has more, the Lions get the top pick; and if Detroit's gains have exceeded Oakland's by exactly 3, a coin flip will need to be held.

If both the Lions and Raiders win, Detroit's strength of schedule would need to gain at least 5 games for the Raiders to get the top pick, or 4 to force a coin flip.

Last edited by Anthony; 12-26-2006 at 08:07 AM.
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