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Old 11-09-2016, 01:01 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 10 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 6-7. Season totals: 58-57-3, Pct. .504. Best Bets: 12-11-1, Pct. .521.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

BALTIMORE
28, Cleveland 13 (+10 1/2) - The winless Browns are not doing much of anything well - 20th in total offense and in rushing, 23rd in passing, and 31st in total defense and against the run, 23rd against the pass - and since 2008 they haven't done much of anything well versus the Ravens - 2-15 straight up, 5-12 against the spread. Little reason to doubt that either will change in this spot, especially with Baltimore already having won in Cleveland, in Week 2, and the Browns also failing to thrive on artificial turf: 4-17 straight up, 7-13-1 against the spread on it since 2012.


SUNDAY

N.Y. JETS
17, Los Angeles 6 (+2 1/2) - It turns out that Ryan Fitzpatrick's sprained MCL is far less severe than what was originally feared, and he is actually expected to play here - and "here" for the Rams means both as a visitor on the carpet, in which capacity Los Angeles is 3-16 straight up and 5-11-3 against the line since 2010, and as a visitor in cold weather, in which role L.A. is 11-20 outright and 11-19-1 pointwise since 1992. For the Jets, this will be only their second game all season against a team that both finished below .500 last year and is currently below .500 this year.

Atlanta 31 (+1 1/2), PHILADELPHIA 21 - This week, either the Eagles will be revealed as one of "those teams" that are invincible at home but can't win on the road or, more likely, a team that is stopping to a walk after a 3-0 start and a bye. Neither path is honorable - and the reasons that the latter path is the more likely of the two is that first, the Falcons have won the last three meetings, winning outright as 3-point or less underdogs in all three (!), Atlanta also handles the "Triple Witching Hour" - a dome team having to play outdoors, on grass, and in cold weather, all in the same game - more than adequately (8-4 versus the points since 1998), and the Eagles are 2-7 against the spread since 2014 when playing a team that is coming off either a bye or a Thursday night game, a situation in which they find themselves in for the fourth consecutive week.

WASHINGTON 27, Minnesota 13 (+2 1/2) - But where the Falcons handle the Triple Witching Hour more than well enough, the Vikings most emphatically do not: Since vacating fabled Metropolitan Stadium starting in 1982, and not counting the 2014 and 2015 seasons when they played their home games at outdoor TCF Bank Stadium, the Vikings are 11-35-1 straight up and 17-27-3 against the line in Triple Witching Hour games, including 6-23-1 straight up (albeit 13-15-2 against the spread) in their last 30. Home team in this one has also won and covered three in a row.

CAROLINA 17, Kansas City 10 (+3) - Nick Foles was unimpressive - 9.35 yards per completion, 86.3 passer rating - filling in for the injured Alex Smith, who at this writing has not cleared the league's concussion protocol. Jeremy Maclin (groin) is also doubtful. Surprised this game wasn't flexed into the late time slot - even if a network switch, which is now allowed under the network contract, had to be made (and Fox has seven games on Sunday afternoon to CBS's four).

Chicago 20 (+1 1/2), TAMPA BAY 16 - With the Bucs at 3-5 and the Bears at 2-6, one would expect to see this line at like four, not one and a half. The reason for the one and a half is that Mike Evans and (even more so) Jameis Winston are both questionable. And Chicago has beaten Tampa Bay three straight (3-0 against the spread as well) and five of the last six (4-2). Tampa is also 8-16 straight up in fatigue games.

Houston 13, JACKSONVILLE 6 (+1 1/2) - This is some ugly football that the Texans are playing. But they do have the AFC South by the p***y - which presumably will no longer need to be censored, just like "ass" no longer is on account of Jimmy Carter predicting that if Ted Kennedy ran against him in the 1980 Democratic primary, that Carter would whip his ass - and the same pretty much goes for them over the Jaguars, whom Houston is 9-2 straight up and 7-4 vs. the number against in the last eleven meetings.

Green Bay 23, TENNESSEE 10 (+3) - So far my theory for picking Titans games is working perfectly: Go with them when they're playing a team that can't stop the run, and against them when they're playing a team that can. And right now nobody's doing better at stopping the run than the Packers, who are allowing a league-best 75.8 rushing yards per game. Green Bay is also 17-9 straight up in road games played on natural grass in this decade, and are two half-point misses - one in their opener this year, at Jacksonville - from having the same spread record in those games.

NEW ORLEANS 27, Denver 21 (+1 1/2) - What did we learn Sunday night? That when this year's Broncos have a bad game on defense, no way is their offense going to be able to bail them out. Well Drew Brees has made countless defenses have bad games in a career that has a future Hall Of Fame statue with his name on it, and Denver does not excel on rugs (12-19 straight up and 10-21 against the line since 2007) or in domes (4-7 and 3-8 since 2005), while the Saints have already proven that they can beat this kind at home, having knocked off both of the last two NFC champions in their two most recent games at what is now officially known as the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

SAN DIEGO 26, Miami 14 (+4) - For the third time this year, the Chargers get to host a team they have lopsidedly dominated recently at home - in this case, three straight wins all by double digits, and the home team all told has won and covered on five consecutive occasions. And the Dolphins simply aren't plausible as an above-.500 team at this point, which they would be if they win. Only knock on San Diego is that a ballot measure that would have funded a new stadium there failed on Tuesday - so let the potentially unnerving San Antonio, Columbus etc. rumors begin.

Dallas 21 (+3), PITTSBURGH 13 - When I first saw this line, I thought it was a typo. The 4-4 Steelers with a hobbled Big Ben favored over the 7-1 Cowboys? And with the game on natural grass, upon which God's Team is a simply divine 12-2 against the spread since 2014?

ARIZONA 51, San Francisco 14 (+12 1/2) - No team has scored 50 or more points in a game yet this year, but Chip Kelly allowed 50-plus twice in three seasons with the Eagles, who hadn't done that even once since 1972. Kelly's latest defense, meanwhile, is giving up a truly comical 193 yards rushing per game, a figure unseen in the NFL since the 1970s, and San Fran hasn't been close on the road this year, outscored 128-61 in three losses/non-covers, and this is the first of their of two 2016 jaunts indoors, where they got clobbered by a combined 106 to 30 in three games in 2015. And this game is just a gift that keeps on giving: Arizona is 15-8-3 against the spread off the bye.

NEW ENGLAND 27, Seattle 23 (+7 1/2) - At least one team has to win but not cover this week, don't they? And Seattle is in essentially the same situation as Jacksonville was in last week, with bad long-term form in cold weather - 10-39 straight up, 18-31 against the spread from 1986 through 2010, but very good more recent results - 8-1 and 7-2 since then. Furthermore, a much weaker defense - Pittsburgh's - did a fairly good job of slowing Tom Brady down, if not entirely stopping him, three weeks ago. So take the points.


MONDAY NIGHT

N.Y. GIANTS
30, Cincinnati 17 (+2 1/2) - Lots of locks on paper this week, so identifying three Best Bets was difficult. This wound up being one of the near-missers: The home team has won every single one of the nine lifetime Giants-Bengals games, and Cincinnati's 8-18-1 straight up record coming off a bye week is the entire league's worst, and meshes very well with how the Giants have fared in fatigue games - a decidedly above-average 9-5 straight up, 8-5-1 against the spread. Eli Manning has put up solid if not eye-popping numbers - 78-for-119, 866 yards, 7 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, for a 92.6 passer rating - during his team's current three-game winning streak, and E-man should go on with it against the NFL's 21st-ranked pass defense.


BEST BETS: WASHINGTON, GREEN BAY, ARIZONA
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