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Old 06-08-2005, 12:31 PM   #1
blackdogsong
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Default Buy or Sell II

1) They have been swept by the Royals and on the merge of getting swept by the Brewers. What was once a slow start is fast becoming a bad season for the Yankees. Losers of 4 straight, 2 games below .500, 0-22 when scoring 3 runs or fewer and 7 games behind Baltimore in the AL East is good for 4th place above only the D-Rays are numbers that should not add up to the biggest payroll in baseball. History would suggest the odds of a Yankees playoff birth are growing darker day by day. Buy or Sell the Yankees missing the postseason?

2) 7 might be a lucky number, but it sure isn't a good ERA number. Add a stream of blown saves this season and giving your home town fans the bird as they boo you off the field will almost surely get you the boot out of town- such is the case for Red's all-time saves leader Danny Graves. Yesterday he inked a deal w/ the Mets to take over the setup role and add some depth to the less then spectular bullpen. Buy or Sell digging Graves as the Met's setup man?

3) Staying in New York... Mets ace Pedro Martínez flirted w/ a no hitter going into the 7th against the stuggling bats of Astro's and nearly made history as the first Met ever to pitch a no-no. It was broken up when a hanger was put over the fence for Chris Burke's fist ever big league homerun. He still went strong fanning a dozen and finished 44th career complete game. Improving to 7-1 w/ a low 2.45 ERA and a NL leading 104 K's Martínez is looking like the dominating force the Red Sox thought was fading. Buy or Sell a Cy Young at the season's end for Pedro?
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Old 06-08-2005, 02:20 PM   #2
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1) Buy. OK, I'm a Yankee hater so i honestly do think this year is the year the Bronx Bombers hit bottom and miss the post season. Too many issues in the pitching rotation and the shallow bullpen. Last year Matusi and Sheifeld carried them the whole way, this year it's A-Rod trying to muscle the team through- not going to happen. Yankees need a balanced lineup, the real Randy Johnson (who's 4.06 ERA sadly is the team best) and Carl Pavano, and some good arms in the pen to turn this sinking ship around.


2) Buy. Sort of. Depends on how much money they spent on Graves. I think he can still pitch and just needed to get out of the mess that is the Reds. He is their all-time saves leader and could be a great anchor for the Mets coming out of the bullpen as a setup guy. I had a lot of doubts about them dropping money on Pedro (who has been amazing) and Beltran (who has let to show this year) and ignoring the rest of their roster but somehow, at least for now, it's working.

3) Another Buy. Please Pedro! Help stop the Clemens/Cy Young monopoly! As long as Pedro has more wins and more K's then The Rocket I don't think anyone else can touch him in the Cy Young race. My worry is that Pedro slows down and becomes a 6/7 inning pitcher later into the season so that could hurt him later down the road. However, he seems happy (for once) and has been pitching lights out all year I expect him to keep this numbers up and run away w/ a Cy Young.
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Old 06-08-2005, 02:23 PM   #3
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sell, sell, sell

Very tough questions this time around, IMO.

I do see the Yanks coming back strong, but the great White Sox collapse hasn't happened yet, so i'm more than a little nervous about this one. I view the White Sox as the team for them to catch because I anticipate the Red Sox and Twins will take their divisions. Right now the Yanks are 9 games back of the White Sox and 7 games back of the Orioles... a dual collapse is definitely necessary for the Yanks' chances. Yanks haven't shown much against good teams so far, but I believe they will and it will get them the wild card.

I know Rick Peterson has a great rep as a pitching coach, but Graves seems like a lost cause to me-- he's mentally shot.

Pedro has been dominant so far, but he's fragile enough that i wouldn't wager on him. I'm anticipating he'll get hurt, clearing the way for Mulder, Zambrano, or someone else to win the NL Cy Young. Pedro does love defying expectations though...
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Old 06-08-2005, 05:57 PM   #4
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1. Buy. By all accounts, the Yankees have the talent to come storming back. People were ready to give them up for dead in early May before that winning streak when they got back above .500. But now that they've hit this new skid, I don't see them rebounding. The pitching staff just isn't very good. All the talk of firing personnel like Brian Cashman and/or Don Mattingly has to be a distraction. And the players who are producing, like A-Rod, are bastardized in the NY media. Too many mental roadblocks for the Yanks to get back to the postseason.

2. Sell. Graves just seems to be out of gas. He was a great closer, but I think it's too late in his career for him to move to a different spot and suddenly produce again. Factor in how tough the NL East is and New York fans, and you've got a pressure cooker that would wear on any reliever, let alone one with the bruised psyche of a Graves.

3. Sell'ish. Pedro's surpassed my expectations thus far into the season, but he's so eradic, you never know what's going to happen with him next. I agree with Billy D. that Mark Mulder or Carlos Zambrano will be stronger Cy Young candidates by August, but I say "sell'ish" because I wouldn't be surprised if Pedro did continue at this level.
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Old 06-08-2005, 07:37 PM   #5
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1. Buy. I have said it before and will say it again the Yankees are a mediocre squad and will be hard pressed to win 80-85 games this year. Yes, they had a nice win streak but let's not forget that the streak came against a mediocre, at best, Seattle team and a bad Oakland team. Randy Johnson appears to finally be coming down the other side of the mountain. He is still a decent pitcher but he seems to be losing that zip on his pitches that made him so dominant. Carl Pavano is showing us that last year was a fluke and is pitching like he did in '03 when he was 12-13 with a 4.30 ERA. Currently he is on pace to finish 11-14 with a 4.38 ERA. Eerily similar numbers if you ask me. Sure the Yanks have talent, the problem being is that it is old talent. This is the oldest team in baseball and they show it on some days. Plus, with all that talent they still have holes in the lineup and only seem to be able to find two or three arms to give them any consistency for a given period of time out of the pen this season.

2. Sell. Graves has always been an overrated pitcher. He had a few solid seasons as a closer but he has never been that dominant and if he could not handle the Cincy fans what is he going to do when then denizens of Shea jump all over him after he gives up that first three run homer to blow a late inning lead.

3. Sell. Petey always seems to wilt under the hot summer sun, it should not be too long until he is taking extra days between starts to save his arm strength. I would not even put him as the front runner for the Award right now. Dontrelle Willis has 9 wins and a sub 2.00 ERA he is the front runner right now. Plus, with the Phils bats coming to life Brett Myers may just get the run support he needs to make a serious run at the Cy Young.
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