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Old 12-11-2019, 10:29 AM   #1
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Cool Anthony's Week 15 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-5-2. Season totals: 95-107-6, Pct. .471. Best Bets: 21-20-1, Pct. .512.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


45, N.Y. Jets 3 (+14 1/2) - It is extremely unwise to go against the Ravens at this point, even at a price like this - and the Jets have not beaten Team Modell on the road since 1991, with six losses and just one cover and having been outscored 147-63. The Jets are also 1-8 straight up and 2-7 against the spread on grass in 2018-19.


28, Miami 16 (+3 1/2) - Carson Wentz got only his fifth fourth-quarter comeback and sixth game-winning drive Monday night (three of each have come against the Giants), but warm-weather and indoor teams dropped to 2-15 straight up and 5-12 against the spread last week for the season and Miami has lost eight consecutive games as a visitor in cold weather (2-6 against the spread) and has been outscored 254-132 therein. The Dolphins are also 8-24 outright and 11-21 pointwise on rugs since 2013, and the Giants have won six of the last seven meetings.

Philadelphia 17, WASHINGTON 6 (+4 1/2) - Throw out the Miami game two weeks ago, and in their last five games otherwise, the Eagles have allowed 263.6 yards and 15.6 points per game - and Washington's offense is last in the league in both points scored (14.5 per game) and yards gained (262.4 per game). In addition, if not for a garbage touchdown with six seconds left in the first meeting in Week 1, Philadelphia would have a five-game covering streak over Elizabeth Warren's Team (by a combined 148-81) to go with a five-game winning streak over them.

Seattle 27, CAROLINA 17 (+5 1/2) - Despite Sunday night's hiccup against the Rams, the Seahawks still control their own destiny in the NFC West: Win out and they win the division, and they can clinch a playoff berth this week by winning and having either the Vikings or Rams lose. Seattle is 7-2 both ways against Carolina in this decade, but 29th-ranked pass defense must tighten up, although getting to face Kyle Allen (29th in the NFL in passer rating) here might help with that.

New England 20, CINCINNATI 7 (+9 1/2) - Armed with that video, Bill Belichick will already know what the Bengals are going to do before they even do it, and since 2004, New England is 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread versus Cincinnati. Both teams get what they want with this result: The Patriots a playoff berth with a win, the Bengals one step closer to Joe Burrow.

Tampa Bay 24, DETROIT 14 (+3 1/2) - Jeff Driskel or David Blough? Either way the Lions will be making the wrong choice. Jameis Winston, who pulled within seven yards of Dak Prescott in the passing yards title race with his 456-yard explosion last week, is expected to play here despite thumb and knee woes. Detroit is 25-54 straight up in December since 2001 - the league's worst December record over that period.

TENNESSEE 31, Houston 16 (+3) - In an unusual scheduling quirk, this is the first meeting between these teams - and will very likely be the home team's seventh straight win and cover in the series. The Texans have had their problems on grass (6-11-1 against the spread since their home surface at NRG Stadium was switched to artificial turf after their first home game of 2016), while Derrick Henry has rushed for 599 yards in his last four games, all Tennessee wins and covers, and will be facing a Houston defense (whose 3-4 matches up very poorly against Henry, who is something of a 21st-Century John Riggins) that is allowing 4.52 yards per carry, 22nd in the league.

GREEN BAY 28, Chicago 7 (+5) - A-Rod is 18-5 straight up and 16-7 against the spread lifetime against the Bears, going 484 out of 736 for 5,603 yards, 46 touchdowns, just 12 interceptions, and a 102.6 passer rating. And Green Bay won the first meeting in Chicago on the opening Thursday night of the season (the first time Kickoff Thursday did not feature the defending Super Bowl champion since 2003) and the futility of teams losing the first meeting to a division rival at home in the second meeting on the road burgeons apace, now standing at a .270 winning percentage since 2016, compared with .442 for all other road teams since then.

KANSAS CITY 35, Denver 27 (+12 1/2) - In "The Other Guy," aka Drew Lock, the Broncos insist they got first-round talent with a second-round pick. And based on his first two starts - a game-winning drive followed by a rollicking blowout of a playoff contender - it's pretty hard to argue. Chiefs won the first meeting 30-6 at Denver in Week 7 - but the Broncos had Joe Flacco at quarterback in that game, and Team Fat Boy could be vulnerable to a letdown after avenging last year's "Coin Toss Bowl" in January's AFC championship game last week.

ARIZONA 17 (+2 1/2), Cleveland 14 - The Browns have lost six in a row inside NFL domes and have been outscored 176-106 therein, and Cleveland 2.0 has never won in the desert (0-3). Arizona's last three opponents were a combined 27-12, so the Cards should appreciate the class drop - and how can a quarterback rank 33rd in the NFL in passer rating when the NFL has only 32 teams? Well that's what Baker Mayfield is.

L.A. CHARGERS 24 (+2 1/2), Minnesota 23 - The home team in this series has won five in a row, and Minnesota's near-two-decades-old struggles on grass and outdoors are legendary - and the so-called "has-been" Philip Rivers is third in the league in passing yards, while Kirk Cousins is ninth.

OAKLAND 27, Jacksonville 10 (+5) - According to playoffstatus.com, the Raiders have only a 2% chance of making the playoffs, but if they win out - and all three of their remaining games are very winnable - the resulting 9-7 final record looks pretty good when placed next to last year's 4-12. This is what happens when you build through youth and the draft (Oakland had three first-round picks in last spring's draft, including Rookie of the Year candidate Josh Jacobs) rather than mortgaging the future for quick fixes. And if Gardner Minshew is the answer, what's the question?

L.A. Rams 34 (+3), DALLAS 30 - Owning all the tie-breakers over Minnesota, if the Rams (who are 7-4 straight up and 7-3-1 against the spread in domes since going back outdoors at home in 2016) win out and the Vikings slip up even once, the Rams are in the playoffs (two Green Bay losses also do the trick) - and how can a team with the league's number one ranked passer, the number five ranked rusher and receiver, and the (tied for) number three ranked tackler have a losing record? Must be the coaching - and if the Rams and Vikings both win out, someone in the NFC will finish 11-5 and miss the playoffs unless the Packers or Seahawks lose out, while the "winner" of the NFC East could get in at 7-9, likely resulting in the owners adding a third wild card to each conference next spring.

SAN FRANCISCO 31, Atlanta 17 (+10 1/2) - If you like that kind of football, last week's 49ers-Saints game gave you everything you wanted. This game will be neither as close nor as high-scoring - and despite their record the 49ers still haven't clinched a playoff berth, but will do so either with a win here or a Rams loss, or losses by both the Packers and Vikings.

PITTSBURGH 20 (P), Buffalo 3 - There's a Campbell's Chunky Soup commercial in Josh Allen's future, with the tag line of "Josh Allen: The Starter Who Plays Like A Backup" - he's 23rd in the league in passer rating, and the Bills are 27th in the league in passing yards per game - and Buffalo's past, both against, and at, Pittsburgh has been pretty gruesome: They haven't won or covered there since 1992 (0-6 both ways and outscored 159-50), and have lost their last six to the Steelers regardless of where played (by a combined 144-76), and 10 of their last 11 both ways. Stir in Buffalo's .333 straight-up "batting average" on grass dating all the way back to 1995 (39-78) and what you have is the recipe for a best bet.


40, Indianapolis 15 (+9) - The Colts' brain trust, if the term applies in their case, will be watching Saturday's Heisman show with great interest, because two (actually three, but one of them, Justin Fields, is a sophomore) of the finalists play a position of pressing need for them - quarterback (Oregon's Justin Herbert is also in the conversation), assuming that even they know by now that Jacoby Brissett is not the long-term solution. But first things first: The Saints have beaten them like a drum in the last three meetings - as in three straight wins and covers by a combined 120-45 - and because of a potentially unfavorable tie-breaker situation, the already-crowned NFC South champions must keep on winning if they want to assure themselves a first-round bye and/or home field throughout the NFC playoffs (a three-way tie between them and the Packers plus either the 49ers or Seahawks would be fatal to them).


Last edited by Anthony; 12-11-2019 at 10:59 AM.
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