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Old 10-12-2004, 02:10 AM   #1
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Cool NFL Pointspread Contest: Week 6

New Tie-Breakers Added

In order to reduce the incidence of splitting points between pickers tied for the same places, two new tie-breakers are being added for the rest of the season, beginning with Week 6 (however, this change is not retroactive, and all points already awarded stand).

Best Bet record will continue as the first tie-breaker; after that two other tie-breakers will be used:

2. Overall record in designated tie-breaker games.
3. Best Bet record in designated tie-breaker games.

There will be five tie-breaker games per week; in Weeks 15 and 16 there are five nationally-televised games, and these will serve as the tie-breaker games for those weeks. In all other weeks from now on except Weeks 7, 12 and 17, the tie-breaker games will be the two nationally-televised games of that week, plus three other games, to be determined using the following steps, which will be taken in the prescribed order until all three games have been successfully identified:

1. Best combined won-lost record of both teams going into that week's games.

2. Narrowest gap in record between the two opposing teams going into that week's games. (Example: A game matching up an 8-4 team vs. a 7-5 team has priority over a game matching up a 9-3 team vs. a 6-6 team).

3. A same-division game has first preference, a game between two teams in different divisions of the same conference has second preference, and an inter-conference game has least preference.

4. As between two games fitting into the same preference category under #3 above, the game matching up the two teams with the highest combined standing within their respective divisions will have preference. (Example: A game matching up a first place team vs. a second-place team has priority over a game between two second-place teams). Where applicable, the official tie-breaking format observed by the NFL shall govern.

5. Narrowest gap in division standing between the two opposing teams. (Example: A game matching up two second-place teams has priority over a game matching up a first-place team vs. a third-place team).

If no resolution is reached after these five steps have been applied, both (or all) of the games in question will become tie-breaker games and there will be six (or more) such games that week instead of five.

In the post that starts each week's contest thread, the nationally-televised games will be shown in red and the other tie-breaker games will be shown in blue for identification purposes.

In Week 7 there is no Sunday night game, so four other tie-breaker games will be chosen according to the above procedures that week instead of three.

In Week 12 there are four nationally-televised games - two on Thanksgiving Day along with the usual Sunday night and Monday night games; all four of these games, plus one additional tie-breaker game identified by the aforementioned procedures will serve as the five tie-breaker games for that week.

In Week 17 there is only one nationally-televised game - on Sunday night. This game will be used, along with the four other games for that week that have the greatest impact on the playoff scenarios, with priority given to games having playoff implications for both teams. Specific details will be posted in the Week 16 contest thread.

If a game is omitted from that week's contest altogether due to no line being released on it until too late in the week and it would have qualified as a tie-breaker game, the next game in the order of preference pursuant to the above rules will take its place.

NOTE: There are no limits - minimum or maximum - on the number of tie-breaker games that need to be included among each picker's Best Bets; if the Best Bet record in tie-breaker games provision needs to be invoked, the picker with the best won-lost percentage in tie-breaker games designated as Best Bets will finish higher. (Example: Only one of A's three Best Bets was used in a tie-breaker game and the team so used covers, while B uses all three Best Bets in tie-breaker games and two of them cover; in that case A wins the tie-breaker because 1-0 is a better won-lost percentage than 2-1). If a picker uses no Best Bets in any of the tie-breaker games, the resulting 0-0 record is treated as a .500 won-lost percentage for the purposes of this step (i.e., it neither outranks nor is outranked by another picker who goes 1-1). As between pickers with no losses, a 2-0 record does outrank a 1-0 record, etc., and as between those with no wins 0-1 is considered superior to 0-2, etc.


Here are the opening lines for Week 6.

Sunday, October 17:

N.Y. JETS 9 1/2 over San Francisco (1:00 PM EDT)
NEW ENGLAND 4 1/2 over Seattle
BUFFALO 6 1/2 over Miami
PHILADELPHIA 8 over Carolina
ATLANTA 7 over San Diego
Kansas City 2 over JACKSONVILLE
CLEVELAND 3 over Cincinnati
DETROIT 1 over Green Bay
TENNESSEE 6 1/2 over Houston
Washington 2 over CHICAGO
DALLAS 3 over Pittsburgh (4:15 PM EDT)
Denver 1 over OAKLAND
Minnesota 3 over NEW ORLEANS (8:30 PM EDT)

Monday, October 18:

ST. LOUIS 7 over Tampa Bay (9:00 PM EDT)

BYES: Arizona, Baltimore, Indianapolis, N.Y. Giants

Home team in CAPS.

IMPORTANT: Don't forget to designate three picks as Best Bets. These are used to break ties between pickers with the same overall record; if no Best Bets are included the picker is placed behind all others who have the same overall record.

Deadline for posting picks is kickoff of earliest game listed.

Any unpicked game counts as an automatic loss, even if game ends in push vs. spread. If a poster leaves a game unpicked in the original post, the pick on that game may be added before the kickoff of the earliest game played that week, but the addition must be made in a separate post and not by editing the original post (if I notice that someone has left a game unpicked, I will attempt to contact the poster by sending a private message; however there is no guarantee that I will catch every single one, especially in the case of picks being posted very late in the week). Under no circumstances can any pick be changed (from one team to the opposing team) once it has been posted.

Pushes count as ties (half a win and half a loss) in determining both overall and Best Bet records.

Standings After 5 Weeks

1. Marc: 100.5
2. KevinBeane: 82
3. Doug Graham: 75
4. gconnhokiebird: 72
5. bama4256: 47.5
6. Nate: 39
7. abogdan: 28
8. MountaineerDave: 15.5
9. ESP0704: 13.5
10. Alex: 9
11. Anthony: 8
12. Hero: 7.5
13. MaddEnemy: 2.5

Last edited by Anthony; 10-14-2004 at 02:38 AM.
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Old 10-13-2004, 09:07 AM   #2
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San Diego BB
Tampa Bay
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Old 10-13-2004, 12:26 PM   #3
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Well, with one BB right, I'm out of any tiebreaker I might end up involved in...

Dolphins BB
Eagles BB
Browns BB

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Old 10-13-2004, 02:01 PM   #4
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Dude... I suck.

San Francisco +9.5
Seattle +4.5
Miami +6.5
Atlanta -7
Houston +6.5
Washington -2
OAKLAND +1 (Best Bet)
Minnesota -3 (Best Bet)
Tampa Bay +7 (Best Bet)
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Old 10-13-2004, 02:37 PM   #5
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N.Y. JETS-Best Bet
Miami-Best Bet
San Diego
Kansas City

Monday, October 18:

Keith "baseball nut" Thronson
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Old 10-14-2004, 02:53 AM   #6
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Last week: 5-9. Season totals: 28-44-2, Pct. .392. Best Bets: 6-9, Pct. .400.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team.


N.Y. JETS 20, San Francisco 13 (+9 1/2) - Jet offense has had its underachieving shoes on of late (only 26 earned points in the last two games) and the whole team could very well be wearing their look-ahead glasses too since they're off to Foxboro next week; plus all the series trends favor the 49ers, who have beaten the Jets five straight times, have never lost to them on the road (5-0), and the home team has covered in only one of the last eight meetings.

PHILADELPHIA 26, Carolina 7 (+8) - The Eagles sure have the strength-of-victory thing working: None of the four teams they've beaten have lost to anyone else besides them and each other (the Giants, Vikings and Lions haven't lost otherwise, and Chicago's two other losses were to Minnesota and Detroit). Andy Reid is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread coming off a bye week (7-0 and 5-2 if playoffs are added) while Carolina is only one of two NFL teams (Houston is the other) that has yet to win a (regular-season) fatigue game in franchise history (0-5 straight up and 2-3 against the spread). DeShaun Foster is out at least a month and a half with a broken collarbone, and if Stephen Davis (questionable) can't make it back here this could get real ugly real early.

NEW ENGLAND 27, Seattle 10 (+4 1/2) - That loud pop you may have heard at about 7:40 Sunday evening (Eastern time) was Seattle's bubble bursting. Bill Belichick probably won't want to hear this, but if the Patriots remain unbeaten until reaching the Super Bowl, they would surpass the NBA Lakers' legendary 33-game win streak from the early '70s with a victory there.

BUFFALO 7, Miami 6 (+6 1/2) - In the 1980 Winter Olympics the "Heiden Effect" fascinated people: Speedskater Eric Heiden won five gold medals, and virtually all of the skaters he was paired with head-to-head recorded personal-best times in that heat. Well now we have the "New England Effect": Only two of the teams the Patriots have beaten during their current NFL-record win streak have neglected to cover the spread the following week. Furthermore, Miami has covered five in a row on artificial turf (and even this year's sorry edition speared the cover at Cincinnati in Week 2) and the biggest personnel mismatch in this game favors the Dolphins: Their defensive front versus Buffalo's worst-in-the-league offensive line.

San Diego 20 (+7), ATLANTA 17 - The Chargers are having fun while they can: From 1997 to the present they're a respectable 26-31 straight up through the end of October and a decidedly un-respectable 12-48 after that; they're also a juicy 17-6-1 against the spread indoors since 1992, and the home team in the series has never covered the spread (0-5-1 lifetime), with one victory (by one point) and five losses straight up. Upset special and best bet.

Kansas City 27, JACKSONVILLE 14 (+2) - Twelve years ago Ross Perot presciently warned of a "giant sucking sound" of jobs leaving the country; well there was a pretty large sucking sound emanating out of San Diego last Sunday - it was the sound of still more air going out of Jacksonville's balloon. Vermeil has covered five straight regular-season post-bye games dating back to his days in St. Louis; I'm getting a go.

CLEVELAND 23, Cincinnati 16 (+3) - The home team has won and covered in every one of Cleveland's 2004 games, and this is the only team in the NFL for which that statement is true. The Browns have also won and covered four of their last five against the Bengals, who for their part are 4-11 straight up following a bye week, including 1-7 when doing so and facing an opponent that isn't.

DETROIT 38, Green Bay 17 (+1) - We can now officially proclaim Detroit's road woes to be a dead letter - but we can't say the same thing for the road team's woes in this series: It has lost the last 14 times against the spread, and there's no reason to doubt that streak's capacity to remain intact in this spot, with Green Bay now utterly reeling and 4-15 pointwise inside NFL domes since 1997 and also 11-31 against the line since 1994 as a visitor on the carpet.

TENNESSEE 27, Houston 16 (+6 1/2) - By losing to the Vikings on grass and outdoors (the roof was open for last Sunday's game) the Texans showed they haven't arrived yet, and with their Monday night smasher at Lambeau the Titans showed they haven't departed yet. Current Houston has also never beaten former Houston, losing all four previous attempts, albeit covering twice.

CHICAGO 10 (+2), Washington 7 - We've not seen nothing like The Mighty Quinn in the NFL since maybe Gary Marangi back in 1976, but until a team that has lost to the Eagles actually gets beat by someone else or a team other than a fellow Philly victim it may not be wise to buck this trend; and the fact that the Bears are home underdogs to a team they're a half-game ahead of certainly doesn't hurt, and neither does their 10-5 post-bye record stacked up against Washington's 2-6 mark in fatigue games.

DALLAS 24, Pittsburgh 13 (+3) - Once upon a time the Steelers used to beat up on the Cowboys so regularly that they dubbed them the "Cryboys." How times change: Dallas has won all of the last four meetings by double digits, and the only even remotely good team the Steelers have played this year soundly whipped them.

OAKLAND 17 (+1), Denver 14 - Like in Cleveland's case, the visiting team has yet to win an Oakland game either, although it has covered twice, losing by three as a 3 1/2-point underdog on both occasions. And while Kerry Collins has been a human turnover machine since taking over for the injured (and likely soon-to-be officially retired) Rich Gannon, the Broncos have hardly been a human scoring machine on the road recently, with a mere 35 points the last four times they've ventured down from mile-high country; leaning toward an upset.

Minnesota 35, NEW ORLEANS 23 (+3) - No list of endangered NFL head coaches would be complete without Jim Haslett's name on it and Minnesota enjoys road games so long as they're indoors, with four straight-up wins in the last five such opportunities; the Vikings have also beaten the Saints five of the last six times they've faced them.


Tampa Bay 27 (+7), ST. LOUIS 21 - Jon Gruden got away with his pouty move to start Chris Simms last week in New Orleans when Simms popped his shoulder in the first quarter and Brian Griese came off the bench to complete 16 out of 19 for 194 yards. And while we're reeling off numbers, the Bucs have St.. Louis' - covering five in a row against them (also winning four of them straight up) - and for some mysterious reason Tampa Bay thrives on artificial turf (four straight wins and five consecutive covers) and in domes (four victories in a row and 3-1 against the line). Stir in the colossal letdown threat the Rams must stare down from last week's miracle finish in Seattle and you have the recipe for an outright upset by an underdog that is a mortal lock to cover.


Seattle at New England is in a circle because Patriots running back Corey Dillon is questionable, and Miami at Buffalo is in a circle because Dolphins quarterbacks Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley are doubtful and questionable respectively.

Last edited by Anthony; 10-15-2004 at 04:36 AM.
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Old 10-14-2004, 09:50 AM   #7
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San Francisco
San Diego (BB)
Kansas City
Detroit (BB)
Denver (BB)
Tampa Bay

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Old 10-15-2004, 01:23 PM   #8
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Default Pointspread picks

San Fran
San Diego
Kansas City
Green Bay
St. Louis
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Old 10-16-2004, 07:30 PM   #9
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New England
Philly (BB)
Green Bay
Denver (BB)
St. Louis (BB)
Penn State '12
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Old 10-18-2004, 01:04 AM   #10
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Our newest participant, Jeff Boswell, sure made a big splash in his debut - so big, in fact, that he will win Week 6 if either the Rams cover the Monday night game or if it ends in a push; a Tampa Bay cover makes abogdan the Week 6 winner.

The week's complete results will be posted after the game.
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Old 10-19-2004, 02:35 AM   #11
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Here are the results for Week 6:

1. Jeff Boswell: 9-4-1 (3-0) 57 points
2. Alex: 9-4-1 (2-0-1) 18 points
3. abogdan: 8-5-1 (3-0) 9 points
4. MountaineerDave: 8-5-1 (2-1) 6 points
5. KevinBeane: 7-6-1 (2-1) 4 points
6. Hero: 7-6-1 (1-1-1) 3 points
7. Anthony: 6-7-1 (1-1-1) 2 points
8. bama4256: 4-9-1 (0-3) 1 point

For current standings see the Week 7 contest thread.
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Old 10-19-2004, 11:00 PM   #12
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Originally posted by Anthony
Our newest participant, Jeff Boswell, sure made a big splash in his debut - so big, in fact, that he will win Week 6 if either the Rams cover the Monday night game or if it ends in a push; a Tampa Bay cover makes abogdan the Week 6 winner.

The week's complete results will be posted after the game.
Congrats, Jeff. And Anthony and others, you can find Jeff's hysterical predictions on SC each Thursday: https://www.sports-central.org/sports/nfl :tup:
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