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Old 11-18-2015, 12:30 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 11 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 4-10. Season totals: 60-81-5, Pct. .428. Best Bets: 10-18-2, Pct. .367.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

JACKSONVILLE
24, Tennessee 16 (+3) - Blake Bortles is quietly enjoying a pretty solid 2015 season (11th in the NFL in passing yards) and the Jags have covered four in a row against The Team That Should Be Known As The Nashville Oilers, despite having won only two of the four straight up.


SUNDAY

N.Y. Jets
20, HOUSTON 13 (+2 1/2) - When Ronda Rousey got shocked by that Holly Mims or whatever her name is at the UFC event in Australia last Saturday night, it seemed to have set the tempo for Week 10 in the NFL, in which ten underdogs won outright, and an eleventh (the Giants) covered the spread without pulling off the upset. Look for the favorites to get their own back in a big way, at least straight up anyway, in Week 11 - starting with this game, in which the Jets' four-day preparation advantage will come in handy - and the Jets are also 5-1 against the Texans in the lifetime series, and covered the spread in their only loss, in 2012.

PHILADELPHIA 23, Tampa Bay 21 (+4) - With Sam Bradford expected to miss the Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit as well as this one, it should be a Battle Of The Bone-Headed Interceptions between Mark Sanchez and Jameis Winston - and one in which the points are well worth taking despite Tampa Bay's 16-44 straight-up and 24-36 against-the-line records in franchise history as a visitor in cold weather, and Philly's current three-game win-and-cover streak over the Bucs.

CAROLINA 31, Washington 14 (+7 1/2) - I'm so glad that Kirk Cousins won last week - because since he did, it sets up the Panthers as a lock this week because now the fact that Cousins has never won two in a row comes into play. Carolina has also won the last three meetings straight up, and covered in the last two.

ATLANTA 20, Indianapolis 16 (+5 1/2) - Andrew Luck remains out, but the Falcons are completely unplayable at this number the way they have been playing of late. Granted, that might change with them coming off a bye - but echoing the Jets-Texans situation, the Colts are 5-1 straight up lifetime in Atlanta, and covered the spread in the lone loss (in 1998). Take the points.

Dallas 27, MIAMI 14 (+1 1/2) - Only their Week 14 visit to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field would be appear to be insuperably inimical to the Cowboys running the table now that Tony Romo is back, as the unbeaten Panthers, who pay a call on God's Country on Thanksgiving, are simply atrocious on artificial turf. In any event, this week's game, in a city at which Dallas has not lost since 1984, and in a series in which the home team is 1-7 outright and 0-8 pointwise in the eight meetings since the aforementioned game, poses no problem for them whatsoever.

DETROIT 24 (P), Oakland 20 - A lot of people are thinking letdown for the Lions following their dramatic streak-breaking win at Lambeau, but Oakland is 1-26 straight up on artificial turf and 1-11 straight up indoors both dating back to 2003, and Detroit has beaten the Raiders three in a row both ways. It seems fitting that no one seems to want the number one pick in the 2016 draft - every NFL team already has at least two wins - in a year when there is no obvious favorite to be that top selection.

BALTIMORE 27 (P), St. Louis 0 - Jay Cutler goes 19 out of 24 for 258 yards and three touchdowns (that's a 151.0 passer rating) last week - and how does Jeff Fisher respond? He benches Nick Foles, who fell to 19-15 as a starter with the loss, in favor of the 2-8 Case Keenum. Maybe I take back what I said in the last pick about nobody wanting the number one draft choice - and I'll definitely take the Ravens, who the NFL freely admits were jobbed out a victory against Jacksonville, and who haven't lost to the Rams at home since they were the original Cleveland Browns (in 1990), as a best bet.

CHICAGO 16 (P), Denver 0 - Don't read too much into Brock Osweiler's late-game performance last week in relief of the benched (and, as it turns out, injured) Peyton Manning: First, that game was at home; and second, he didn't have time to get nervous, as he will in this spot. Denver's 18-game winning streak on the road on natural grass has to end some time (it came sickeningly close to ending in Cleveland five weeks ago - and they didn't cover for only the second time during the streak), and it will unequivocally end here, unless the Broncos sign Christian Ponder between now and Sunday - or, for that matter, swallow their pride and give Tim Tebow a second go-round.

Kansas City 27, SAN DIEGO 20 (+3 1/2) - Andy Reid, who in 2003 became the only head coach ever to overcome an 0-2 start with both losses at home to make the playoffs in a non-strike year (with the Eagles), now has real chances to become only the second head coach (and the first since the legendary Paul Brown did it in 1970) to make the playoffs after starting 1-5 - and KC's coming off holding Peyton Manning to a zero passer rating (on 5 out of 20 for 35 yards and four interceptions) supersedes any advantage that might accrue to the Chargers for coming off a bye - and there might not be any such advantage at all in that San Diego has non-covered four straight off the bye.

MINNESOTA 17 (P), Green Bay 14 - With his post-game comments last week, Aaron Rodgers proved that he is not a patriot in another sense aside from the fact that he does not play for New England - and the Packers have spent the past four years proving that they cannot be trusted on artificial turf: Green Bay is 6-12 straight up and 5-13 against the line over that period as a visitor on the carpet. Yes, the times they are a-changin' in the NFC North: First, Detroit wins in Green Bay; now, Minnesota takes a commanding division lead.

SEATTLE 20, San Francisco 10 (+11 1/2) - True, the Seahawks have covered nine in a row against San Fran, which is also 9-16-1 against the spread off the bye, including non-covers in the last three; but right now you cannot lay wood like this on Seattle against anybody - not even Blaine Gabbert.

ARIZONA 35, Cincinnati 13 (+3 1/2) - I am going to let an old friend of mine, who I will refer to here as "Double R," make this pick for me: "Ah, well, the Bengals, ah, well, really laid an egg against the Texans on Monday night. They could use some jelly beans! And let's see now, well, don't the Cardinals almost always keep their retractable roof closed, and the Bengals haven't ah, well, exactly been a winning machine indoors lately, have they?" (The Bengals are 7-14 straight up and 9-12 against the spread in their last 21 indoors, Ronnie). "And ah, well, it's been quite some time since they beat the Cardinals on the road; wow, in fact they have never done that!" (and have never covered either). "And, well, Carson Palmer hasn't had a bad game at home, since, ah, well ... I can't remember." See? There you have it: Double R thinks Arizona is a lock!


MONDAY NIGHT

NEW ENGLAND
33, Buffalo 14 (+9) - And if I let Double R make this pick too, he would probably tell you that the Patriots are as big a lock as the Cardinals: They have won 22 of their last 24 against Buffalo, where they won in Week 2, with a 15-8-1 spread record in the double dozen. And with Peyton Manning unlikely to play when they travel to Denver next Sunday night, it would appear that nothing now realistically stands between New England and another 16-0 regular season.


BEST BETS: BALTIMORE, CHICAGO, ARIZONA

Last edited by Anthony; 11-19-2015 at 12:50 PM.
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