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Old 10-03-2019, 09:12 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 5 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 4-11. Season totals: 22-38-3, Pct. .373. Best Bets: 5-6-1, Pct. .458.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

L.A. Rams
27, SEATTLE 21 (+1) - Rams swept the Hawks last year - also with the first meeting in Seattle - and with a home game against the 49ers on three extra days' rest coming up next week, they can take control of the NFC West with wins in both games.


SUNDAY

Chicago
13, Oakland 3 (+5 1/2) - Raiders linebacker Vontaze Burfict, whose record has been anything but perfect when it comes to keeping his play within the confines of the rules, has been suspended for the rest of the season after he damn near took Colts tight end Jack Doyle's head home with him last week. This one's in England instead of Oakland, where it would have been otherwise. Mitchell Trubisky is out, so Chase Daniel, who has been in the league for ten years and has appeared in four playoff games, even though he didn't start in any of them, will get the start here.

N.Y. GIANTS 35 (+4 1/2), Minnesota 10 - If the Giants end up narrowly missing the playoffs this year, the blame will fall squarely on the front office and/or Pat Shurmur for not opening the season with Daniel Jones at quarterback. And not counting a 2010 game that was moved to Detroit because of a blizzard that caused the roof at Triple H, where the Vikings played their home games at the time, to cave in, the home team has won the last four meetings by a combined 140-41, and it's outdoors again, and it will probably be Kirk Cousins facing what now figures to be another over-.500 team again.

PHILADELPHIA 27, N.Y. Jets 17 (+14) - When the original Browns (now the Ravens) lost their first 16 games at Pittsburgh's Three Rivers Stadium, ex-Steeler Lynn Swann, who was in the booth covering the last such game in 1985 for NBC, said that "We are about to witness the continuation of one of the most stupefying jinxes in football," as Gary Anderson was lining up to attempt a 25-yard field goal with nine seconds remaining (which he made, giving Pittsburgh a 10-9 win), after Cleveland cornerback Frank Minnifield had been flagged for a really ticky-tacky pass interference call that almost certainly would been challenged and reversed had it happened this year. There is a jinx here too, although somewhat less stupefying, as the Eagles are 10-0 straight up and 9-1 versus the points lifetime against the Jets, outscoring them 271-171 in the 10 games. But that conveniently works out as 27-17 per game, and doesn't cover this spread - and Sam Darnold might be back this week after all.

New England 37, WASHINGTON 14 (+14 1/2) - After one subpar game on offense against the league's second-ranked defense last week, and a de-facto shutout by the defense in which they didn't cover a three-touchdown spread the week before, everybody wants to throw the Patriots into Boston Harbor with the tea. But I don't! They have outscored the NFL's Indigenous People 113-44 in the last three meetings, and should have no trouble manhandling them again even if Jay Gruden does wise up and starts Dwayne Haskins.

Baltimore 17, PITTSBURGH 6 (+4) - Ravens are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five in Pittsburgh, and they lead the league in rushing offense while the Steelers are 29th - and can't see Mason Rudolph having two good games in five and a half days, even at home.

Jacksonville 20 (+3 1/2), CAROLINA 16 - The narrative for this season so far has been "The Invasion Of The Backup Quarterbacks," and here two of them get to play each other - Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen. And whenever I see a "weasel line," the worst of which are two and half and three and a half, I will always give the latter and take the former, unless there is some compelling reason not to.

CINCINNATI 24, Arizona 17 (+4) - When the NFL and AFL merged in 1970, non-division matchups were assigned eight years in advance, without any regard to the previous season's standings or what divisions teams played in, although every team did play three interconference games, except one team in each conference who played four (because 13 teams, which both conferences had, could not play 11 conference games each). Now entire divisions play each other, guaranteeing a steady diet of games like this. But to the matter at hand: The home team is 10-1 straight up and 8-3 against the spread in the lifetime series, and while both head coaches are in over their heads, Arizona's Kliff "Don't Call Me Kyle" Kingsbury is in over his head even further.

TENNESSEE 17, Buffalo 13 (+2 1/2) - The other major "weasel line" - two and a half - and while the last three meetings in this one have all been decided by one point, two of them were in Buffalo, and New York State's Only Team is 1-4 both ways lifetime in Music City, and may be without Josh Allen (the dreaded concussion protocol). Finally, Buffalo is 37-77 straight up and 49-63-2 against the line dating all the way back to 1995 as a visitor on the grass.

NEW ORLEANS 24, Tampa Bay 14 (+4) - Talk about nothing to go on: Four straight splits in this series - and the home team is 4-4 both straight up and against the spread! Bucs are 0-2 at home and 2-0 on the road, but both of those road wins have come on natural grass - and since 2013 Tampa Bay is 5-22 straight up and 9-16-2 against the line as a visitor on the carpet, and also 5-17 straight up and 7-14-1 against the line inside NFL domes.

HOUSTON 35, Atlanta 13 (+4 1/2) - It's time for the Texans to stop underachieving, and the home team in this series has won and covered in all four meetings. And it's time for the Falcons to can Dan Quinn.

L.A. CHARGERS 28, Denver 17 (+6 1/2) - Teams have three straight splits working (with the Chargers covering in four of the six games) - and the surest way for that trend to continue is for the home team to win the first meeting. Melvin Gordon should be ready to return from his convenient holdout that enabled him to sit out the rigors of training camp.

Green Bay 31 (+4), DALLAS 24 - Packers are 3-0 both ways lifetime at Jerry World, and the Dallas bubble burst big time Sunday night against Teddy Bridgewater. If Lambeau had a roof, Aaron Rodgers would have blown it off Thursday night, even though the Packers lost to the Eagles.

KANSAS CITY 38, Indianapolis 21 (+10) - Jacoby Brissett won't be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Colts have had their problems outdoors - 4-12 straight up, albeit 7-9 against the spread, since 2017.


MONDAY NIGHT

Cleveland
27 (+3), SAN FRANCISCO 20 - After a near-record 25-game road losing streak in which they even went 7-17-1 against the spread, the Browns have been making up for lost time, going 4-2 outright and 5-1 pointwise since on the NFL highway - and Cleveland 2.0 is 2-0 on the road after two road games for the first time in franchise history. Meanwhile, the 49ers have lost six straight coming off a bye and non-covered on seven consecutive occasions - both the longest active streaks in the NFL.


BEST BETS: N.Y. GIANTS, HOUSTON, CLEVELAND

Last edited by Anthony; 10-03-2019 at 09:23 AM.
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