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Old 12-18-2018, 06:27 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 16 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 3-11-2. Season totals: 97-118-9, Pct. 453. Best Bets: 23-20-2, Pct. .533.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



SATURDAY

TENNESSEE 20, Washington 17 (+10) - The last three games in this series have been decided by two, three and three points - and the Titans leave way too many points on the field and the incentive sword cuts both ways, making this number totally unlayable.

L.A. CHARGERS 15, Baltimore 14 (+5) - As Harry Truman said of both JFK and Richard Nixon during the 1960 Presidential campaign, the Ravens bore the hell out of me. But the Chargers are on letdown watch after snapping their nine-game losing streak to the Chiefs last Thursday night, which clinched a playoff spot for them, while Baltimore is still fighting to get in, and no way will Melvin Gordon be anywhere near 100%, if he plays at all (Keenan Allen is also questionable). Maybe Anthony Lynn goes for two again with the game on the line?


SUNDAY

N.Y. JETS
27 (+3 1/2), Green Bay 21 - How can you trust the Packers as road favorites when they have lost nine in a row on the road? This assures a showdown for the NFC North cellar in the season finale against Detroit on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.

INDIANAPOLIS 20, N.Y. Giants 0 (+9) - The Colts are coming off a shutout win. The Giants are coming off a shutout loss. And the Colts have won and covered three straight over the Giants by a combined 104-59.

PHILADELPHIA 31 (+1 1/2), Houston 20 - Maybe the Eagles simply play harder with Nick Foles at quarterback? And it is always hard times for the Texans on natural grass (4-9 straight up, 3-9-1 against the spread since 2016), and in cold weather (10-15 straight up since 2005) - and not only have they never beaten Philly, but they have lost all four lifetime meetings by double digits. A Baltimore loss on Saturday night assures Houston of a playoff spot (so would losses by both the Colts and Titans, the AFC South title in that case, or a loss by the Steelers) while the chances of the Eagles making the playoffs as a wild card, calculated by PlayoffStatus.com at 5% two weeks ago, are at 21% now.

NEW ENGLAND 38, Buffalo 10 (+13) - This is the same line as in the first meeting at Buffalo in Week 8, won by New England 25-6 - and Tom Brady is 13-1 straight up lifetime against the Bills at Occam's Razor, the lone loss coming in a Week 17 "Siesta Bowl" in 2014. And the Patriots will be rooting for the team that upset them in Super Bowl XLII, since a victory by that team will but them back in control of their own destiny for a first-round bye.

Atlanta 24 (+3), CAROLINA 20 - Thirty-four years after Nena had a smash hit with "99 Luftballons," Cam Newton had 99 net yards passing against the Saints Monday night. And maybe the Falcons had to beat an Arizona team that is last in the league in points scored, total yards gained, rushing yards gained, and passing yards gained - the "grand slam of futility" - last week, but they didn't have to beat them like a drum the way they did. Who knows? Perhaps Atlanta really wants second place in the NFC South, for which a win here puts them in prime position to get, since it would give them a head-to-head sweep of the cratering Panthers.

MIAMI 13, Jacksonville 10 (+5) - Whose bright idea was it to put the three Florida teams in three separate divisions? But as a result, whenever two of them do play each other it always seems to be a tough, physical, and usually low-scoring battle. That same outcome seems likely here. Take the points.

CLEVELAND 31, Cincinnati 14 (+7) - The Browns won by 15 in the City of Satan four weeks ago - and when a team has finished last in their division a record seven consecutive times, you better believe that clinching third place in the AFC North, which the Browns would do with a win, means a great deal to them.

Minnesota 23, DETROIT 20 (+5) - The Vikings exploded on the ground with 220 yards rushing in their first game in the post-John DeFilippo era - but that was against Miami's next-to-last-ranked run defense. The Lions are a tougher out, ranking 16th against the run, and their offensive line will be seeking revenge for when Matthew Stafford was sacked 10 times in the first meeting. Willing to take a chance on Detroit with the points at home against Kirk Cousins, who has shown a pronounced tendency to gag on it when it has mattered the most.

DALLAS 35, Tampa Bay 13 (+7) - Their 23-0 loss to the Colts last week was due to an obvious letdown on the part of the Cowboys, who are 11-1 lifetime at home against the Bucs, who since 2013 are 5-21 straight up and 9-16-1 against the spread on rugs and 5-16 outright and 7-14 pointwise in domes. Best bet.

L.A. Rams 33, ARIZONA 6 (+14) - Facing far and away the worst offense in the league (see the write-up for the Atlanta-Carolina game), and having beaten the Cardinals 99-16 in the last three meetings, including two shutouts, the Rams put an end to their two-game losing streak and clinch a first-round bye when this result is coupled with the next one. The only danger for those laying this number is if Sean McVay hits on the idea of playing "not to lose" on offense against a team with such a horrible offense by keeping it mainly on the ground against the 30th-ranked Arizona run defense - but with Todd Gurley "day-to-day" due to an inflamed knee, will that approach even be feasible?

SAN FRANCISCO 21 (+5), Chicago 20 - Upset special. The 49ers are 4-3 at home and 0-7 on the road, and if Nick Mullens pulls this off, he earns himself at least a permanent backup job going forward - and if Jimmy Garoppolo can't answer the bell on opening day next year from his devastating knee injury, the starting job for at least the early part of next season. And not for nothing, but Mullens has a higher passer rating (96.0) than Mitchell Trubisky (94.1). Big balloons!

NEW ORLEANS 17, Pittsburgh 13 (+6) - Remember the movie "The Last Boy Scout," which included the song "Friday Night Is A Great Night For Football"? (102 F-bombs were also dropped in the film, believed to be an all-time record) Well Week 16 will be a bad week for favorites. In his last three games, Drew Brees is 65 out of 94 for 531 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. That's a 77.0 passer rating if you're scoring at home - and if the Ravens had lost on Saturday night the Steelers clinch the AFC North with a win here, while the Saints can clinch home field throughout the playoffs in the NFC if they win. With straight-up records of 15-9 since 2013 as a visitor on the carpet and 9-3 since 2009 inside NFL domes, Pittsburgh plus six is the pick in this spot.

SEATTLE 27 (+2 1/2), Kansas City 20 - The Chiefs, who are 17-38 straight up on artificial turf dating all the way back to 1998, have gained 154 yards rushing in their last two games, without Kareem Hunt. That's 77 yards per game; by comparison, their erstwhile crossstate rivals (by the way, "crossstate" is the only officially recognized word in the English language in which the same letter is repeated three consecutive times!), the Cardinals, who are last in the league in rushing, are averaging 82.4 yards per game. Fat Boy chokes - again.


MONDAY NIGHT

OAKLAND
23 (+3), Denver 21 - The Broncos go for the hat trick - three straight outright losses as favorites - and should get it in a series in which the home team has won five in a row. Quoting that dude from the Men's Wearhouse commercial, if you bet on all the underdogs this week you're gonna like the way you look.


BEST BETS: PHILADELPHIA, NEW ENGLAND, DALLAS
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