CFL and CFB Bets For October 20-21

Boy howdy, are there some bets that I feel very, very strongly about in the Canadian Football League and in college football this weekend, so let's dive right in.

It probably isn't the boldest take in the world to start off with a -226 parlay (which means a 69.33% implied chance of winning), but I will because I believe this bet has about a 95% chance of hitting.

In the Canadian Football League, there is not a ton of parity this year. Toronto is a clear number one, BC and Winnipeg are neck-and-neck for #2 and #3, Montreal is a clear #4, and Hamilton is a clear #5.

How clear are these delineations? Exhibit A: Montreal is 0-7 against the teams I deigned as #1, #2, and #3, and 10-0 against everyone else.

Exhibit B: Toronto, Winnipeg, and BC are 33-5 in all games besides the ones they've played against one another. Only one of those 5 losses came at home (Hamilton won at BC on August 26th).

BC hosts Calgary on Friday and Winnipeg hosts Edmonton on Saturday. BC needs a win to stay alive for top seed in the West. If they do win, Winnipeg must beat Edmonton (already eliminated from the playoff race) to clinch the West title.

Yes, Calgary is still alive for a playoff berth, but they are reeling. They have only won one of their last four (none of those losses came against the vaunted top three): a win last weekend over even-more-reeling Saskatchewan (losers of 6 in a row, and who still look like they are going to back into a playoff spot).

Simply put, BC and Winnipeg are better teams, are at home, and they need to win. They're not gonna lose. They're not. I got the -226 odds at MyBookie. At those odds, you would have to bet $22.60 to win $10.

* * *

On to college football. Over in the Big Ten West, my hypothesis is that, after Iowa, Wisconsin, and Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Minnesota are all roughly equally terrible. Maybe Illinois will prove to be slightly better, coming off a surprising win over Maryland, but they aren't involved in the bet I'm looking at.

Here's how the terrible four have looked against each other so far:

Northwestern: 1-0
Minnesota: 1-1
Nebraska: 1-1
Illinois: 0-1

I think any game between these four teams could go either way, and I certainly don't think that any deserve to be big favorites over any of the other three. Yet, here we are, with Nebraska favored by 11 hosting Northwestern on MyBookie. I grabbed Northwestern at 13.5, but I'd be happy to take them down all the way down to 8.5. Which is to say, I'm betting on a single-score game — and I really hope this one hits since I accidentally posted my ticket twice. Oops!

The last line that jumped out at me is Washington is laying -26.5 points against Arizona State. Lines that big should only be made in conference games with great circumspection, (like, say, Georgia vs. Vanderbilt). Washington is in a prime spot for a letdown, and Arizona State is not that bad: their in-conference losses have come by by 14, 3, and 3. That letdown I am citing means I envision Washington "only" winning by a score of, like, 31-13, which would be an easy cover for the Sun Devils.

Like the Northwestern game, this line is trending in the wrong direction if you agree with me — I got ASU at +29 — so jump on this quickly.

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