College Football Picks, Week 11

I've been rolling pretty decently the season, including when I post my picks in this column, so let's see if we can keep the momentum. All lines from MyBookie:

Louisville (-1) at Miami

Over the last six games, Miami has had two great results (sticking with FSU and beating Clemson), one okay result (losing to UNC on the road by 10) and three bad results (getting pasted by North Carolina State, losing to Georgia Tech, and needing OT to beat Virginia, the latter two at home).

At the end of the day, this is a team that is 2-4 in the ACC against a team that is 5-1 in conference. The Cards are the play for me.

UNLV (+3) at Air Force

This is my favorite play of the day. Something is very wrong at Air Force, who went from undefeated to back-to-back multiple-score losses to teams with losing records (Army, Hawaii). I could accept one of those games as a fluke, but two is much more alarming, and UNLV is not the team to right the ship against. They are 8-2 and closing in on their best season since 1984. Pound UNLV.

Nebraska (+4.5) at Wisconsin

I wrote in an earlier column about the parity in the Big Ten West, and that parity has only asserted itself more since then. Iowa is clearly better than everyone else in the division, and the other six teams are all either 3-4 or 2-5 in Big Ten Play.

This means that, within those teams, I have to raise an eyebrow on any line higher than -3. Not only is that the case here, but Wisky, in their last two games, have given Indiana their first conference win of the year and Northwestern their first road win of the year.

Wisconsin shouldn't be favored by more than 1 or 2, and they may lose outright. I say this as the Big Ten West Understander (despite being from Big Ten East country). I would make that my entire identity (social media handles, tattoos, all that), but alas, divisions are going away in the conference.

Baylor (+13.5) at TCU

Woo, I'm really on road teams this week, aren't I? That's not at all concerning.

Both these teams are 2-5 in conference, and TCU should absolutely be favored. Their two wins were better, and by more. Their losses were also better. But this still adds up for me to about an 8- or maybe 9-point spread being reasonable, not 13.5. This is also a rivalry game and the Big 12 is not without parity themselves. Take Baylor.

Kansas State at Kansas (+8)

Finally, a home team!

Here we have another over-a-TD line in the Big 12. I don't know why the sportsbooks are so down on Kansas, although that looked prescient last week. This team beat Oklahoma, beat a very good Iowa State team in Ames, and is the only team to beat UCF by more than 13.

Now, they are at home for a rivalry game where they'll have the opportunity to break a 14-game losing streak in said game, and they're underdogs by 8? F'real? Kansas State has an outstanding resume in their own right, even better than Kansas's to be sure, but if it can ever be said to "throw out the record books" in rivalry games, surely it's here.

Leave a Comment

Featured Site