Monday, November 5, 2007
NCAA Basetball Program Power Rankings
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As I brainstormed topics for my first college hoops column of the season, I found myself wondering the question that every electronic writer faces at some point: what will get me the most angry, bitter comments below my work? With this challenge in mind, genius struck. Nothing riles up college hoops fan bases more than reading that their programs aren't as great as somebody else's. And with that, my NCAA hoops program power rankings were born.
The general gist of the rankings is that, roughly, they form a ladder for coaching ascension. That is, the coach of program No. 4, for example, should probably be willing to leave for programs 1-3, but none of the rest.
So what makes one program better than the other? These are the factors that set college hoops apart from the NBA. In the pros, nearly every team plays in a state-of-the-art, cookie-cutter arena packed with dance teams and pyrotechnics. In college, arenas, practice facilities, locations, academics, and coeds matter. Thinking about leaving a job in Southern California for Iowa? Better consider those pools of two-guards you'd be deciding between.
There are, of course, exceptions in putting these together. Coaches who were brought up in a famous program or under a famous mentor are probably hesitant to defect to the dark side. Do you think Oklahoma's (and former Dukie) Jeff Capel will be replacing Roy Williams any time soon? But aside from those oddballs, here are my rankings. And if you favor something other than Carolina blue, as always, your anger can be taken out on the comments section below.
1. North Carolina; 2. Duke — The sport's most heated rivalry takes the top two spots with the Heels getting the slightest of edges. Modern history, location, and coaching star power are equal and cancel out between these two. And while Carolina may be up now, let's not forget that just this decade the Dukies were clearly the class of the college hoops world, let alone the rivalry. But UNC has one small edge that earns this job the nod. While Duke trumpets its lofty academics, that very virtue must be a hinderance in bringing in the best talent. After all, the school's entrance requirements that devastate scores of valedictorians annually must in some way bottleneck the dozens of hoopsters hoping to play for Coach K. Or at the very least it's an additional rule a prospective coach would have to artfully manipulate in building his roster.
3. UCLA — Nobody, not even the Tobacco Roaders, surpasses the Bruins when it comes to hardware and championship tradition. Throw in the lagoon-sized pool of talent in SoCal that Ben Howland is currently recruiting from, and the UCLA post rises near the top. So why only No. 3? For one, UCLA's national relevance has only resurfaced in the last few seasons after a decade of dormancy. But another factor hurts the Bruins. The Pac-10 continues to suffer from a combination of Eastern Time Zone bedtimes and an absence from ESPN. Like their football counterparts, these leaders of the western hoops world don't get the advantage of tip-off countdown clocks and four different channels giving full circle coverage. While every Duke/UNC showdown stars on ABC, ESPN, or CBS, can you name the last time UCLA got an over-hyped showcase game? Sometimes it's not all about the basketball.
4. Kentucky; 5. Kansas — Two very similar programs take spots 4 and 5. Though the Jayhawks have been better over the last few seasons, give the Wildcats the edge based mostly on recruiting potential. Both programs have no problem throwing their weight around the national recruiting scene, but Kentucky can rely more on the basketball richness of its own backyard than Kansas. That slight edge makes UK a step up from KU. Ironically, both schools have experienced football a renaissance this season, but let's not kid ourselves: these two schools are both basketball country.
6. Indiana — What's all the rage about a school that, other than the run to the National Title Game in 2002, has been well off the national college hoops radar for going on two decades? Coming to Bloomington is a chance to earn your Knight-hood on a stage where the audience lusts for national glory. Like Kentucky and Kansas, Indiana is a basketball-centric corner of a college sports universe dominated by shoulder pads and shovel passes, and the head coach can count on a ready stable of local talent. The Hoosiers' slide from relevance accounts for their positioning here well below Kansas and Kentucky, but in its full cream-and-crimson glory, IU is as close to Big Ten hoops heaven as there is.
7. Florida — The Gators are certainly the new money in this group of mostly traditional powers. Under Billy Donovan, the Gators mostly underachieved until their torrid run of the last two seasons (though don't forget they were finalists in 2000). Now every high school prospect wants to come to Gainesville, and Donovan's rejection of SEC-chum Kentucky won't hurt his recruiting stance. Is it possible that the Gators caught lightening in a bottle with an exceptional core and key contributors over these two seasons? Sure. But with access to the rest of the state of Florida to the south and the (other than Kentucky) relatively accessible states of the southeast, the Gators have a chance to keep chomping at the bit for a while.
8. Georgetown — Great names (Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning, Allen Iverson, both John Thompsons), great basketball city (Washington, D.C.), great academics. Well, two of those things will help. Another school that has to be fighting the admissions board at some point, the Hoyas have reclaimed their spot near the throne of the college hoops world. Like other members of the old guard, Georgetown can point to the ancient (yes, the early-'80s are ancient to today's recruits) as well as the modern (2007 Final Four). There's still some work to do to show that this will last, but this is once again a premier job in college basketball.
9. Syracuse — In drafting these rankings, several teams made strong cases for this spot. Ten years ago, Arizona would have been much higher than here. Rick Pitino has picked up Denny Crum's legacy at Louisville. Several Big East and Big Ten schools have either the tradition or the current success to warrant this spot. But Syracuse can at least claim points in many of the major categories. The Orange have had stars that left legacies on the program (Carmelo Anthony, for one), access to both the recruiting pool and media market of New York City, and recent major success (2003 champs). Syracuse plays countless major showcase games each year regardless of their talent, and with all due respect to Rutgers and St. John's, the Orange can claim all five boroughs as home turf.
10. Gonzaga — Okay, okay ... I admit I cheated the rules here a little. While I certainly wouldn't expect the coaches of several schools not included on this list to leave their posts for Spokane, consider the brand name that 'Zags basketball has become. When you think of the Michigan States and Arizonas of the world, you can't help but identify with the faces of Tom Izzo and Lute Olsen. While Mark Few has certainly put his stamp on Gonzaga (with a starting boost from Dan Monson), the Bulldogs are better known for being a group of scrappy giant-killers. The 'Zags have managed to bring in a motley stream of talent from the foreign and distinguished (Rony Turiaf), to the quirky and counter-cultural (Adam Morrison), to the chemically inclined (Josh Heytvelt). How many programs have an identity that strong? This is a Cinderella program built to last well past midnight.